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Friday, May 6 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Joel Embiid

Henry John



After a day off with no NBA Playoff action, the conference semifinals are set to resume in full force on Friday evening. Tonight’s matchups will feature the East’s and West’s top seeds seeking to build an insurmountable 3-0 series lead. Up first will be the Miami Heat visiting the City of Brotherly Love to face the Philadelphia 76ers. The nightcap will feature the Phoenix Suns taking on the Dallas Mavericks. While there are plenty of interesting wagers to make on the game lines themselves, NBA prop bets remain one of the best ways to approach betting on the playoff games today.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for tonight’s NBA Playoffs doubleheader.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

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Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)

Ladies and gentlemen, he is back. Initially, there were conflicting reports regarding whether or not Joel Embiid would be available for the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3. That doubt is no more, as Shams Charania indicated that Embiid was fitted for a face mask to protect his broken orbital bone. At this time bettors can press forward with the expectation that the MVP finalist will be on the floor for Philadelphia in tonight’s must-win game. While it is no surprise that oddsmakers opened Embiid’s NBA player props totals at cautious amounts, it is pretty tough to argue against betting over the current line of 25.5 points.

On the full season, Embiid averaged a ridiculous 30.6 points per game. This, along with his contributions in other areas, formed the basis for a season that many believe is deserving of MVP honors. Embiid does come back in a bit of a tricky spot tonight. For starters, it remains unclear how his playing time might be impacted by the injury. In addition to this, the Miami Heat are no slouch defensively. The Heat allowed just 104.9 points per game this season, the third fewest of any team.

Despite these potential obstacles, the gap between Embiid’s per-game scoring average and the prop line is too great to ignore. The shot attempts will be there, as will the friendly whistle given that the 76ers are at home tonight. OddsShopper shows that this line has already been bet up one full point across the market after opening at 24.5. Some sportsbooks are even juiced to the over on the adjusted number as well, creating a 15 cent discrepancy between prices. Awesemo projects Embiid for 30.48 points in Game 3, creating an edge to the over that is simply too good to pass up.

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Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (-140, Caesars)

Relative to NBA player props totals from earlier in these playoffs, the assist prop for Phoenix Suns point guard Chris Paul has dipped dramatically. It is rare to see an adjustment in excess of a single tick up or down for rebounding or assist props. That is precisely what has taken place with Paul’s assist total ahead of Friday night’s Game 3. Earlier in these playoffs, bettors were forced to pick over or under 10.5 assists for Paul. Tonight the NBA prop bets total sits at just 8.5.

This adjustment can almost certainly be attributed to the fact that Paul has recorded no more than eight assists in each of the last three games. This stretch comes after he started out the playoffs with five straight games in which he dished 10 assists or more. In a nutshell, the adjusted prop line of 8.5 assists sets up a prime buy-low opportunity on the Suns point guard. After all, Paul averaged 10.8 assists over the course of the full season. Betting on him to finish nearly three assists short of his per-game average for a fourth consecutive contest is hardly ideal.

Currently, OddsShopper shows all sportsbooks requiring bettors to lay some extra juice to bet over Paul’s diminished assist total. The best available price may only be -140, but OddsShopper is still set on going over the prop line. The projections tab Paul to distribute 9.64 assists. Juiced odds and all, the expected ROI value is still determined to be a profitable 12%.

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Dorian Finney-Smith Over 11.5 Points (-106, FanDuel)

Another NBA player props line that has bounced around throughout the playoffs is the scoring total for Dallas Mavericks wing, Dorian Finney-Smith. In the first-round series against Utah, Finney-Smith scored at least 11 points in five of six games. With his season scoring average sitting at 11, it is also worth noting that he eclipsed this by 2 points or more in four of those first-round contests. Finney-Smith got off to a strong start in the Western Conference semifinals as well. A 15-point performance in Game 1 marked his seventh consecutive game with multiple made 3-pointers to begin the playoffs.

Unfortunately, things took an ugly turn in Game 2 against the Suns on Wednesday. Early foul trouble resulted in Finney-Smith only playing 20 minutes total for the game. Prior to that, he had been on the floor for at least 40 minutes in each of the Mavs playoff games this season. While the Suns successfully managed to get Dallas guard Jalen Brunson into foul trouble in both Games 1 and 2, one has to expect the Mavericks will benefit from a bit friendlier whistle playing at home tonight. Having said this, bettors can comfortably assume Finney-Smith will not be stuck on the bench for prolonged periods like he was in Game 2.

Add in the fact that the NBA prop bets total today of 12.5 points is 1 full point lower than what Finney-Smith’s scoring line was set at on Wednesday, and there is good reason to consider the over. OddsShopper also reveals that the preferred price point of -106 is up to 14 cents cheaper than other listings in the NBA betting market. OddsShopper gives Finney-Smith a 64% probability to exceed 11.5 points in Game 3. He projects for 13.80 points, and the optimal odds result in a hefty 25% expected ROI value.

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