Tonight, Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans will host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 6 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 6 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Spread: Bills -6 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point spread should be, and the same for point totals and moneylines. The model shows an expected point spread of 7.8 points, and BetMGM has a point spread of 6. The bet had an expected ROI of 6.7% when it was at 5.5 points.
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Point Total: Under 53.5 (-110)
The model has an expected point total of 52.8 points, and the total at BetMGM is set to 53.5 points. When the total was a full point higher, the expected ROI on the bet was 8%. The discrepancy between the projected total and total set by BetMGM has decreased, but it is still a bet one can make for a positive expected ROI.
Devin Singletary Yards Rushing: Over 26.5 (-115)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Devin Singletary is projected to rush for 41.22 yards, and this bet has a 78% chance of winning and a 46% expected ROI. Singletary has had a decreasing role as the weeks have gone on. He went from playing 75% of the snaps Week 1 to playing 26% of the snaps Week 5, while Zack Moss played 74% of the snaps. Singletary is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season and is facing the No. 16 run defense in the NFL, which allows 112.8 yards per game. If Singletary can carry six or more times, there will be a good chance of winning the bet. Singletary’s longest rushes of the season are 46 yards and 25 yards; theoretically this bet could hit on one play.
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards: Under 15.5 (-115)
The player props tool projects Derrick Henry for 10.82 yards receiving. This is a bet on whether one believes Henry will be targeted in the passing game. He had at least two receptions in each game from Week 1 to Week 4, with 19 or more yards receiving each game. Last week against Jacksonville he had zero targets. The Bills defense on average has allowed 3.4 receptions and 36.4 yards per game to the running back position. Jeremy McNichols has received 60% of the running back targets and was targeted twice last week when Henry was not targeted. It is possible that Buffalo will allow a majority of those 36.4 yards to McNichols and not Henry.
Ryan Tannehill Pass Completions: Under 21.5 (-110)
The player props tool projects Ryan Tannehill to complete 19.51 passes, and this has a 69% chance of winning and a 31% expected ROI. Tannehill averages 22 completions per game but has had three games under this total. The two games he hit the over were overtime games. This is not expected to be as close of a game. The Buffalo defense has also been stout against the passing game, allowing just 173.4 yards passing per game (No. 1) and 57.71% completion (No. 2). Tennessee averages 34.8 pass attempts per game. If Buffalo can hold them to 57.71% completion, that will result in 20 completions for the game.
One-Game Parlay (+400)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is Moss over 39.5 yards rushing (48.72 projected), Tannehill under 249.5 yards passing (231.86 projected) and Bills -6.5 points (-7.8 expected point spread). If all three legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 4x.
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