NFL Best Bets: Week 11 Monday Night Football Odds & Picks on BetMGM Sportsbook

Tonight Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 11 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 11 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football

Point Spread: Buccaneers -10.5 (-110)

Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point spread of 12.5 points. BetMGM has the point spread set to 10.5 points. The 2-point difference makes this a good bet on the Tampa Bay side.

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards: Over 41.5 (-115)

The Player Props Tool is where to look before placing any prop bets. The model projects Kadarius Toney for 66.55 yards receiving. Earlier in the week this prop was set at 38.5 yards. At that time the model gave this bet a 78% expected win rate and a 47% expected ROI. Even with the movement to 41.5 yards, there is still value in the over bet.

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Kadarius Toney Receptions: Over 4.5 (+125)

The Player Props Tool projects Toney for 5.18 receptions. The expected win rate of this bet is 57%. This bet has a high expected ROI of 27% because BetMGM is setting the odds at a 44% chance of winning the bet. Tampa Bay has the No. 22 pass defense, allowing 254.2 yards through the air per game.

Daniel Jones Yards Passing: Over 240.5 (-115)

Jones is projected for 259.97 yards passing according to the Player Props Tool, and this bet correlates to the Toney overproduction above. If Toney is going to be above average in yards receiving and receptions, it is very likely that Jones will have to produce above his averages as well. The model gives a 64% expected win rate and a 20% expected ROI to this bet.

Rob Gronkowski Yards Receiving: Over 29.50 (-115)

Rob Gronkowski is projected for 39.46 yards receiving according to the Player Props Tool. In the three games he played when healthy, Gronkowski had 90 yards in Week 1, 39 yards in Week 2, and 55 yards in Week 3. However, he did not practice on Saturday. Hopefully there will be more clarity on his status as the day goes on today.

One-Game Parlay (+475)

With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. The top one-game parlay for this game is Chris Godwin over 69.50 yards receiving (77.80 projected), Brady 25-plus pass completions (26.59 projected), Darius Slayton over 39.5 yards receiving (43.93 projected) and Brady over 299.5 yards passing (303.11 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, the bet pays out 4.75x.

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