Tonight Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will host Carson Wentz and the Indianapolis Colts. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 5 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 5 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Spread: Indianapolis +6.5 (-105)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point spread should be, and the same for point totals and moneylines. The model shows an expected point spread of 6 points, and BetMGM has a point spread of 6.5 points. According to the model, this is the best traditional bet to make. The bet had an expected ROI of 4.9% when the point spread was 7.
For those who like the Colts to win the game, the moneyline is a place to look. BetMGM has Colts +240, which is a 29% chance of winning. The model gives Indianapolis a 31% chance of winning.
Carson Wentz Completions: Over 20.5 (-110)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Carson Wentz completing more than 20.5 passes is one of the best prop bets of the night. Wentz is averaging 22 completions per game and has hit this over two out of four weeks; he missed it in another week by one completion. Indianapolis averages 65 plays per game and passes the ball 58.85% of the time. That creates an expectation of 38 pass attempts. This is a bet hoping Wentz will complete at least 55% of his passes and the Colts continue to play at the same pace and pass play percentage tonight. According to the model, this bet has a 65% chance of winning and an expected ROI of 28%.
Sammy Watkins Yards Receiving: Over 40.5 (-115)
The player props tool projects Sammy Watkins for 50.21 yards receiving. Watkins averages 62.45 yards per game and has had over 40.5 yards every game this season. The Colts have the No. 9 pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 216.8 yards passing per game. Watkins has also had seven or more targets each week of the season, averaging 7.25 targets per game. If he catches four or five passes, it is difficult to visualize him having fewer than 41 yards. The model gives Watkins a 61% chance of winning the bet, along with an expected ROI of 17%.
Jonathan Taylor Yards Rushing: Over 57.5 (-115)
The player props tool projects Jonathan Taylor for 63.35 yards rushing and gives a 63% chance of winning the bet. Taylor is averaging 68.5 yards per game, but that is aided by his first 100-yard rushing game of the season last week against Miami where he ran for 103. His average prior to that game was 57 yards. The last two weeks, however, Taylor has averaged 6.4 yards per carry. If he can get at least 13 carries and average 4.5 yards per carry, this bet will hit.
One-Game Parlay (+450)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is Carson Wentz over 219.5 yards passing (240.26 projected), Parris Campbell over 24.5 yards receiving (28.30 projected), Mo Allie-Cox over 10 yards receiving (25.13 projected) and Marquise Brown over 40 yards receiving (53.21 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 4.5x.
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