Tonight Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers will host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 15 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 15 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Point Total: Over 52 (-110)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for money lines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point total of 54.5 points. BetMGM has the point total at 52 points. The 2.5-point difference between expected and actual point spread makes this the best traditional bet of the night. The bet has an expected win rate of 63% and a 10% expected ROI.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Yards Rushing: Under 56.5 (-115)
OddsShopper has Clyde Edwards-Helaire projected for 53.3 yards rushing. Edwards-Helaire averages 12.63 carries per game and 4.5 yards per carry, giving an expected total of 56.81 yards. Last week against Las Vegas, Edwards-Helaire had 10 rushes while Derrick Gore had nine. This is a bet more on whether one thinks Edwards-Helaire will carry the ball over 12 times. The best prop bet of the night is to take under 56.5 yards, as the bet has a 72% expected win rate and 36% expected ROI when the line was set at 57.5. Even at one fewer yard now, there is still value in the bet.
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Mike Williams Yards Receiving: Over 54.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects Mike Williams for 69 yards. Williams has had a very up-and-down season, starting the year off looking like Cooper Kupp and now looking more ordinary. Despite that, Williams averages 70.38 yards per game. Kansas City has the No. 26 pass defense in the NFL. When these teams played each other in Week 3, Williams had seven catches for 122 yards and two touchdowns. This bet has an expected win rate of 63% and a 17% expected ROI.
Darrel Williams Receptions: Over 2.5 (+125)
Darrel Williams is projected for 2.9 receptions according to OddsShopper. Williams averages 2.92 receptions per game and has had weeks with nine catches and six catches. The Chargers have the No. 4 passing defense, allowing just 207.3 yards passing per game. It is plausible Williams could benefit from checkdowns. Additionally, he has had three catches in two straight weeks. This bet has a 51% expected win rate and had a 16% expected ROI when the odds were +130.
Keenan Allen Yards Receiving: Under 76.5 (-115)
Keenan Allen is projected for 74.9 yards according to OddsShopper. Intuitively this bet makes some sense in that if expecting Williams to go over his projected total that Allen is likely to go under his projected total, as one receiver usually benefits at the slight expense of the other. Allen averages 77.42 yards per game. The last time they played Kansas City, he had 50 yards on eight catches. This bet has an expected win rate of 59% with a 10% expected ROI.
One-Game Parlay (+500)
Generally, the best strategy is to target this parlay with bets that have a high win expectancy: Edwards-Helaire under 59.5 yards rushing (53.3 projected), Mike Williams over 59.5 yards receiving (69 projected) and Mahomes over 279.5 yards passing (300.8 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, it will pay out 5x the bet.
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