Tonight Carson Wentz and the Indianapolis Colts will host Mike White and the New York Jets. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 9 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 9 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Point Total: Under 45.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook provides compared to the expected point total. The same is true for money lines and point spreads. The model gives an expected point total 44.8 points. BetMGM is offering 44.5 as the point total. When the total was at 45.5, the expected ROI of betting the under was 8%. There is still some value there betting under the 45.5.
Ty Johnson Yards Receiving: Under 20.5 (-115)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Ty Johnson is projected for 16.06 yards receiving. Betting the under when it was at 21.5 gave a 76% chance of winning the bet. While Johnson has had more yards of late — 71 yards last week, 65 yards the week before — his median yardage is 11.5 per game, and he has had four games with 12 or fewer.
Carson Wentz Completions: Over 21.5 (-105)
The Player Props Tool projects Wentz for 23.16 completions. HE is averaging 21 completions per game, and his median number is 20. This is a bet that comes down to passing volume. Wentz is completing 62.2% of his passes this year. If he attempts 35 or more, there is a strong chance of winning the bet. The Jets are the No. 25 pass defense, allowing 275.3 yards per game on average. According to the props tool, there is a 72% chance of this bet hitting and an expected ROI of 40% on it.
Michael Carter Yards Rushing: Over 50.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool projects Michael Carter for 55.97 yards rushing. Carter is averaging 39.85 yards per game but is coming off a career-best 77 yards last week against Cincinnati and has seen an increasing workload the last three games — 10 carries in Week 5, 11 carries in Week 7 and 15 carries in Week 11. Carter has been averaging 3.8 yards per carry. To beat this bet, he would need 14 carries at his current average. The Colts have an average run defense, allowing 108.8 yards per game, which ranks 15th. The model gave this bet a 61% chance of winning when it was at 48.5 yards. There is still value at the 50.5 total offered by BetMGM.
One-Game Parlay (+525)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is a series that projects well in the Player Props Tool: Jamison Crowder under 64.5 yards receiving (56.81 projected), Mike White under 274.5 yards passing (248.87 projected), Denzel Mims over 24.5 yards receiving (33.56 projected) and Jonathan Taylor under 89.5 yards rushing (81.40 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, that wins 5.25x the bet.
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