Tonight Brandin Cooks and the Houston Texans will host Christian McCaffrey and the Carolina Panthers. These are two franchises heading in opposite directions. The Panthers are 2-0 to start the year with some optimism, while Houston lost starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor and are coming off of a 10-point loss to Cleveland. There are different places to go for both game and NFL prop bets. BetMGM Sportsbook has good odds posted for this Week 3 Thursday Night Football game tonight, and these are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 3 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Spread: Houston +8 (-110)
Awesemo’s sports betting model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides versus what the expected point spread should be, and the same for totals and moneylines. The model shows an expected point spread of Houston +7.5, and BetMGM is giving us +8 at the time of this writing. A mistake some make is looking at a low line of 43 points and then making another adjustment for Davis Mills starting at quarterback instead of Tyrod Taylor. Something to realize is the sportsbook has already priced this into their line. If Tyrod Taylor were starting, it would be very likely that the spread would be lower than eight points. This bet does have a negative ROI of -0.4% in the model, but it still provides the best bet out of the money line or total.
Mark Ingram II Yards Rushing: Under 36.5 (-115)
When looking for player props, look at Awesemo’s player props tool to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Mark Ingram II under 36.5 has an expected ROI of 68.6%, the highest expected ROI on any prop of the night. Last week Ingram rushed for 41 yards against Cleveland on 14 carries. He is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on the season. If that holds, we are betting on him getting under 12 carries in the game. If this game is a blow-out, or Houston gets down early, they will likely be forced to pass more often, giving work to David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay. Lastly, Carolina has the best rush defense in the NFL right now, allowing just 46.5 yards rushing per game.
Davis Mills Pass Completions: Under 18.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Player Props Tool projects Davis Mills to complete 17.84 passes. When this line was at under 19.5, the expected ROI was at 29%. With the total set one full completion lower, the expected ROI is lower but still one of the better bets to make on the night. With him being a rookie, they may not want him to attempt more than 30 passes in this game, which is what it would likely take for Mills to hit the over.
Robby Anderson Yards Receiving: Over 43.5 (-115)
The props tool projects Robby Anderson to have 59.10 yards receiving and a 72% chance of having more than 42.5 yards receiving. The extra yard will adjust the chances a little but not enough to move me off the bet. Houston is allowing 259 yards passing per game. Anderson is receiving 13.2% of the total targets for the season but did receive 17.1% of the targets in Week 2. What I like about this bet is Anderson is capable of hitting the over in one play. Week 1 against the Jets, he had one catch for 57 yards.
One Game Parlay (+525)
The best one-game Parlay at BetMGM is Christian McCaffrey over 74.5 yards rushing, Sam Darnold over 254.5 yards passing, and Houston Texans +8.5. If all three legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 5.25x.
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