Let’s dive into some of Tuesday’s top plays, along with NBA picks and MLB picks analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool.
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NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers: Los Angeles First Half -4.5 (-118)
The Clippers have been beyond frustrating in this series against Denver. They were in position to close this series out with a 16-point lead in the third quarter of Game 5 and a 19-point lead in the third quarter of Game 6, and they somehow blew both games. I think the Clippers will close this one out with everything on the line, but I’m not playing the full game spread. We should see the Clippers come out focused once again and see a similar start to the last two games, although the Game 7 jitters could keep this one a little closer than the last two games. The Clippers generally come out and play strong following a loss, which has been the case in every game but Game 3 in this series, in which they came back and won late. When it comes down to a must-win, I’m trusting talent to prevail early.
This game is moving to -5 on the first half line. I was able to lock in -4.5 at -110, but there’s one place left to get that number as I write this. DraftKings still has 4.5 on the board, you just have to lay the -118.
Ben’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Cincinnati First Five Moneyline (-120)
The Reds are going with a bullpen arm here in Michael Lorenzen, but the price tag is too cheap to pass up on. In small samples, Lorenzen has improved as the season has progressed and allowed seven earned runs in 18 innings since the start of August. He’s also been a better pitcher at home, with a 3.75 ERA in 12 innings over seven appearances. He’s pitched well in three outings against Pittsburgh, allowing just three hits in 5.1 scoreless innings. I’m leaving some cushion in this handicap that we might need a couple innings from the Reds’ bullpen, which has been average over the last two weeks.
Joe Musgrove has been the least profitable first-five pitcher in baseball this season, 0-5 thus far on the first-five line. His 5.40 ERA has jumped to 8.00 in his two road starts, which is where Pittsburgh’s offense also struggles even more. The Pirates have the 28th-ranked first-five offense and average just 1.87 first-five runs per game on the road. Cincinnati isn’t much better, but they do average 2.52 first-five runs per game at home and have been hitting well in this series against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is just 7-13-2 on the first-five moneyline on the road and 2-8 first-five moneyline in its last 10 overall.
OddsShopper shows BetMGM offering the best full-game moneyline on the Reds at -134, so start your search there for the first-five line.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: St. Louis First Five -0.5 (-120)
Jack Flaherty has been a completely different pitcher at home, where he has a 2.05 ERA in four starts. He’ll host the worst first-five MLB offense in baseball, with the Brewers averaging just 1.87 first-five runs. The Cardinals have been a very good first-five offense, averaging 2.93 first-five runs per game. That run production has the Cardinals with the fifth-best first-five record in baseball at 22-14-2. That record’s even better at home, where they’re 15-8-2, and St. Louis is on a 7-3 first-five run overall.
Brett Anderson will be on the mound for the Brewers, and is coming off his two worst starts of the season. He’s surrendered four earned runs in each of his last two starts, which have come against Cleveland and Pittsburgh — which rank 26th and 28th in first-five offense. The Brewers have been the third-worst first-five team in baseball, going 14-25-5.
OddsShopper shows FanDuel and DraftKings offering the full game run line at +112. They should have the -120 price range for the first-five run line.
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