This article will examine the Week 5 NFL best bets for the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Thursday Night Football game. Using the Awesemo NFL Betting Props Tool, bettors can utilize it to maximize their profits and see which bets have the highest expected return on investment for their NFL prop bets. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these prop bets. Here are the four best bets for tonight’s Sunday Night Football game.
FanDuel Week 5 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Zach Moss Under 13.5 Yards Receiving
Moss and Devin Singletary continue to share carries in the Bills backfield, although Moss has gotten the better half of playing time the last two weeks. He has been on the field 56% of the snaps in Week 3 and 4, while Singletary has seen the field 44% of the snaps. Buffalo has three straight blowout victories.
Despite the recent discrepancy in playing time, Moss and Singletary each have gotten 35 carries and have been involved in the passing game roughly the same amount over the last three weeks. Their production has been relatively equal during this span, with Singletary outgaining Moss 197-188 in yards from scrimmage. However, Moss has three touchdowns compared to one for Singletary. The main difference has been how the two backs have been used. Moss has been Buffalo’s main red-zone back, as nearly 33% of his rushing attempts and 60% of his catches have been from 20 yards and closer this year. Expect this trend to continue, as Singletary has averaged 5.3 yards per carry, while Moss is tallying just 4.1 per attempt.
Moss is projected for 10.14 yards receiving tonight. Awesemo has given the under a 74% chance of hitting, as Moss likely will not see as many touches as he has been getting with the game expected to be much closer than the Bills’ previous three games. The return on investment is expected to be a substantial 39%.
Travis Kelce Under 7.5 Receptions
Kelce has been heavily involved in the Chiefs offense this year, as expected. He is second on the team in both receptions (24) and targets (32), but he only had four catches on six targets in Kansas City’s 42-30 victory over Philadelphia, as the Chiefs totaled 200 yards on the ground and Tyreek Hill had 11 receptions.
While Buffalo has not faced the most competent quarterbacks this season, the Bills defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56.1% of their passes. The Bills have done a solid job against Miami’s Mike Gesicki (three catches on six targets) and Washington’s Logan Thomas (four receptions for 26 yards). They have given up 13 receptions to opposing tight ends, which is tied for fourth fewest in the league. Kelce had five receptions on seven targets for 64 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo, though he is averaging just 3.5 receptions in four career games against the Bills. Kelce is projected for 6.33 receptions tonight. While FanDuel lists the under odds at -146, an 11-point drop from the opening line, the return of investment projects around 25%.
Tyreek Hill Under 7.5 Receptions
Hill matched his season high with 11 catches against Philadelphia last week. He is on pace for a career year, as he has caught a personal-best 78.3% of his 38 targets for 453 yards and four touchdowns. Hill has a tough matchup against a Bills defense that has only allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 53.6% of their passes to wide receivers. They have accounted for five of the team’s seven interceptions — both numbers are the best in the league. Hill caught all three of his targets for 20 yards against the Bills a year ago. He is projected for six receptions tonight, with a 74% chance of going under. FanDuel lists the odds (-162), which is slightly better than the opening line of -166, with an expected return of investment around 19%.
Cole Beasley Over 4.5 Receptions
Beasley has seen his production fluctuate dramatically this year. He has only seen the field around 60% of the team’s offensive snap over the last three weeks, as the Bills have cruised to victories. Beasley is second on Buffalo with 25 receptions and 32 targets thanks to huge performances in Week 1 and 3. In the season opener he had eight catches against Pittsburgh and caught 11 of 13 targets two weeks ago versus Washington. Beasley brought in four of seven targets last year against the Chiefs. He is projected for 5.6 receptions tonight. While FanDuel lists the over odds at -146, the under has a 68% chance of hitting. The return of investment is expected to be around 19%.
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