It’s always a major relief to your work week schedule in getting a Thursday Night Football matchup that includes intrigue beyond a far-fetched narrative. It wasn’t long ago that we would view an AFC South meeting between Andrew Luck (if he wasn’t hurt) and Marcus Mariota the way you’d look at an old pile of magazines at the doctor’s office: Nothing there you hadn’t seen before, but it’s there if you’re desperate for entertainment while waiting (for the doctor, or in our case here, Sundays). Thankfully as we make our NFL betting picks for Week 10 Thursday Night Football Colts vs. Titans on OddsShopper, those days are behind us for the time being.
After dropping two straight games with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, Ryan Tannehill and the 6-2 Titans welcome their division rivals in the 5-3 Colts to Nissan Stadium for Thursday Night Football in Week 10. With two teams who each have surprisingly entertaining offensive units (especially the core group which Philip Rivers has been contending with), it will be interesting to see how each of their respective defenses responds, most particularly the Colts top rush defense against one of the league’s best running backs in Derrick Henry.
Can Rivers instill realistic playoff hope for Colts fans after win in Tennessee this evening? Or will Henry trample the first-place Indianapolis run defense to put the Titans further in front of the AFC South? Let’s dive into what OddsShopper has to offer as we make NFL picks on the betting lines for Week 10 Thursday Night Football and find out tonight.
* NFL Odds as of writing. Click HERE for up to date odds using the OddsShopper tool.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the DayAwesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL Betting Picks: Week 10 Thursday Night Football Best Bets | Colts vs Titans
NFL Betting Pick: TE Trey Burton, OVER 2.5 Receptions (-124, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
Upon glancing over OddsShopper, a receiving prop that stands out immensely despite slightly increased juice is that with attention to Colts tight end Trey Burton. After the season started off on a great foot for Mo Alie-Cox as the Colts’ leading tight end, the sudden emergence of Burton came about in Week 4 and rapidly became a trending target for Rivers. From Week 4 onward, Burton rose to the top-targeted tight end in Indianapolis while also the third-most targeted among all Colts offensive weapons at 14.1% target share since Week 4 (led by Zach Pascal at 17%).
Meanwhile, the Titans rank 21st overall against tight ends, allowing 411 receiving yards and five touchdowns to the position all season. Burton will see some coverage from safety Kenny Vaccaro, who Burton possesses a two-inch height and 24-pound advantage over, which could make for a slight edge in end-zone ball contention as well. Most recently against Chicago, Jimmy Graham notched six receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Titans.
With Jack Doyle ruled out this week and Alie-Cox questionable while ailing a knee injury, the targets at tight end for Indianapolis are a no-brainer against a weak-link Titans secondary who has proven trouble contesting against opposing tight ends. For Burton, achieving three or more receptions could cash in before halftime, with only a mild increase in house juice at -124 to compensate for.
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NFL Betting Pick: RB Derrick Henry, UNDER 78.5 Rushing Yards (-106, BetMGM)
This is nothing Henry, as we know what an unprecedented beast he is. But the Colts run defense has been playing quite convincingly, notably against opposing running backs.
This is not nearly at all a detraction from Henry’s accolades so much as this is intended to speak volumes about Indianapolis’ rush defense, the Colts are one of just two teams to allow under 500 total rushing yards to opposing running backs all season, while the only team to do so while ranking in the top three passing defenses simultaneously. One may hold in question the tier of talent among opponents the Colts have faced thus far in 2020, but they even managed to contain Dalvin Cook to just 63 rushing yards (and a touchdown) in their Week 2 meeting, and Cook has been having the best season of his career (just as an idea for comparison).
Henry has been outstanding in his past year and a half, and exceeded 100 rushing yards on four different occasions this season. Yet when faced with the likes of Pittsburgh, Buffalo and even Chicago’s mediocre run defense, Henry didn’t surpass 75 rushing yards against any of said opponents. It isn’t Henry’s ability in question of holding up so much as it is the Tennessee offensive line’s ability to run block against this staunch Indianapolis front seven. I think Tannehill will be put in a situation inclined to throw the ball more, especially if the going gets at all rough for the Titans offense to hold up the pace in this game.
A defensive scrum may bode in favor of a heavy rushing attack from either side, but the matchup for Tennessee fares better in the passing game from what we’ve seen of Indianapolis this year.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more Week10 NFL sports betting content, including more picks and predictions.
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