Patrick Mahomes and the 4-4 Kansas City Chiefs are seeking to regain their identity as they welcome Davante Adams and the 7-1 Green Bay Packers, absent Aaron Rodgers, to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon. With the new Awesemo NFL Player Props Tool, bettors can now search player props by team and immediately pinpoint the best available odds at recognized sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at the tool’s projections and odds for Week 9 Sunday NFL Football to lock in the best NFL prop bets on Adams and Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes & Davante Adams Week 9 Sunday NFL Player Props
Adams Over 5.5 Receptions (-141, Caesars)
The Jordan Love show begins in Green Bay, at least temporarily, and the NFL Player Props Tool suggests Adams will remain an obvious top target. With Rodgers as quarterback Adams has averaged 7.4 catches per game this season while the props tool projects the over with a 68% expected win rate. Adams is projected for 6.86 catches of 10.95 targets on Sunday against the Chiefs, as the props tool aligns the over for a suggested 16% return on investment.
It’s no secret that the Chiefs defense has been dreadful, ranking second-to-last in defensive pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders and allowing 269.8 passing yards per game, while only surrendering 10.75 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers. Yet, the Chiefs also rank 28th in defensive pass DVOA against the WR1 position and 17th in defensive receiver coverage with a 60.3 rating by Pro Football Focus. At a bit of a spend up on his low-lying player prop, grab the over Adams.
Mahomes Under 26.5 Completions (+100, DraftKings)
Mahomes is coming off a 29-completion performance against the Giants, though the props tool forecasts he’ll be coming in well beneath that number against the Packers on Sunday. Mahomes is averaging 27 completions and 40.62 pass attempts per game this season while the NFL Player Props Tool gives the under a 72% expected win rate. With Mahomes projected for 23.61 completions of 37.8 pass attempts against the Packers, the props tool projects the under for a suggested 45% return on investment.
The Packers defense has allowed 22.62 completions per game to opposing quarterbacks while ranking 11th in pass rush with a 74.9 rating per PFF. With 20 sacks on the year (tied seventh overall) the Packers defense has also forced nine interceptions and five fumbles as they remain plus-8 in turnover differential. At even-money odds, sprinkle on the under for Mahomes.
Adams Over 75.5 Yards Receiving (-115, BetMGM)
Looking to Adams’ receiving yards prop, a total he’s exceeded on five of seven games played this season, and the NFL Player Props Tool suggests more of the same on Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs. Adams is averaging 106.3 receiving yards per game this season and the props tool forecasts a 59% expected win rate for the over. As Adams is projected for 87.85 receiving yards against the Chiefs the props tool positions the over for a suggested 11% return on investment.
Adams has exceeded 100 receiving yards on three separate performances this season while one of them went over 200 yards receiving, and to think none of that was against a Chiefs secondary makes you wonder what’s in store regardless of Rodgers’ presence. The Chiefs defense is allowing 147.12 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receiving corps, surrendering 81 yards per game to the WR1 position through eight games. Another over on Adams’ receiving, at moderate house juice.
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