In this article, we’ll take a look at the best Week 4 NFL player prop bets from the 1 p.m. ET window. Using the Awesemo NFL Betting Player Props Tool, bettors can utilize it to maximize their profits and see which bets have the highest expected return on investment. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these player prop bets. Three bets stood out above the rest in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, so let’s see what best NFL prop bets are:
Week 4 Best NFL Player Prop Bets
Ryan Tannehill: Over 199.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have already been ruled out for the Tennessee Titans, but Tannehill doesn’t need a lot of passing yards to get the job done. Luckily, he’ll be facing one of the worst teams in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, the Jets have the 26th-ranked secondary in the NFL. Things are even worse now with safety Marcus Maye set to miss this one with an ankle injury.
Awesemo’s Player Prop Betting Tool has an expected win rate of 81% on Tannehill throwing over 199.5 yards, and an expected return on investment of 52%. Bettors will get the most bang for their buck on BetMGM, where the yardage is lower than the 203.5 that you’ll see at other sportsbooks.
Tennessee is listed as a 6.5-point favorite over New York, meaning there should be some level of success in this matchup. With injuries to the star receivers, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Jets’ No. 13 (DVOA) run defense stack the box against Titans RB Derrick Henry. Since that will likely be the case, Tannehill has some big-play potential that can get us over 200 yards in a hurry.
Alvin Kamara: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton has been very cautious with QB Jameis Winston. As a result, Kamara hasn’t been used in the passing game like he was with Drew Brees. Surprisingly, Kamara hasn’t exceeded 30 receiving yards in a single game this season; dating back to last season, he has gone six games without reaching that mark. To put it in perspective, Kamara exceeded 30-plus receiving yards in the first seven games last season, and in eight of the first nine.
A lot of sharp bettors are on the Giants this week. You know what they say — the only thing more desperate than an 0-2 team is an 0-3 team. Looking at the game script from that perspective, Kamara should be used quite a bit through the air. In back-to-back weeks against the Giants, J.D. McKissic had five catches on six targets for 83 yards and Cordarrelle Patterson had six catches on seven targets for 82 yards. New Orleans should be more than capable of exploiting this matchup against New York’s weak linebacking corps.
Kadarius Toney: Under 2.5 Receptions (+110, PointsBet)
In the New York area, you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone with kind words for this year’s Giants’ first-round pick. Toney, who is more of a gadget receiver, needed all of these injuries from fellow receivers to finally see the field for a decent amount of work. This week, the Giants will be without WRs Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, and Toney is still probably considered the fourth option. He will have a chance to right his wrongs this weekend, but it’s not looking too optimistic in a game that has a total of 42 points.
Last week, Giants RB Saquon Barkley had a breakout game for the first time in a while. In the Kamara blurb, we mentioned the sharps are all over the Giants this week. If that’s the case, they should surprisingly be able to control the clock and Toney’s short-range catches in garbage time shouldn’t be needed as much.
Using the Awesemo OddsShopper Tool, bettors can shop for the best odds with Toney. On PointsBet, bettors can find plus-odds (+110) for him to go under 2.5 catches, whereas bettors on FanDuel have massive odds (-130) for him to go over 2.5 catches. Toney only has two catches apiece in each of the two NFL games he has played so far.
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