PGA DFS Picks: Free Awesemo Grades Corales Championship DraftKings

With the U.S. Open now in the rear-view mirror, the tour heads into its fall swing. It’s a time of year that is usually reserved for newcomers from the Korn Ferry Tour and veterans who are trying to survive on conditional status. Last fall, players like Brendon Todd and Harris English used these weaker field events to launch themselves into what were career-defining years. While this fall won’t have the same crop of newcomers — due to the COVID-19 stoppage there are limited graduates this year — it’s still an important time for players who didn’t have the greatest 2019-20 season. It’s our job to decipher the best PGA DFS picks of this crop of players.

The first event will likely feature the most opportunity for these fringe players, as the Corales Puntacana Club and Resort Championship doesn’t have a ton of big names attached. Henrik Stenson is the only player here ranked in the top 50, and the betting favorite has no status on the PGA Tour. The event is in its third year on the PGA Tour but has a different date attached to it as its usually held opposite the WGC Matchplay event in late March. The venue has hosted pro tournaments each year since 2016 as it was seen on the Korn Ferry Tour for two seasons before it got called up to the big leagues. Corales is a 7,600-yard par 72 that features paspalum grass — a feature of most tropical courses — and has most of its holes on the back nine situated on or near the ocean. Wind can be a factor on this entirely open course, but in general, the venue has played fairly straightforward in past seasons with easy-to-hit fairways and winning scores of 18 under in both its years on tour.

Corales Golf Club Stats and Info

• Players hit over 70% of the fairways here the last couple years
• Each of the past two winners ranked first in putts per green in regulation and averaged well under 290 yards per drive for the week of their win
• The course features four par 5’s, two of which are over 600 yards. The last two winners played these holes in 10 under par for the week
• Corales hosted a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2016 (Dominic Bozzelli) and 2017 (Nate Lashley)

PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

PGA DFS Pick: Will Zalatoris: Grades: A+, Values: B

Zalatoris was the second-biggest story of the U.S. Open last week. The Korn Ferry Tour member grinded his way to a sixth-place finish, showcasing a razor-sharp tee-to-green game that had him outperforming some of the best golfers in the world. Zalatoris has now, incredibly, finished sixth or better in nine of his last 12 professional starts. While all of those finishes prior to last week came on the Korn Ferry Tour, that kind of consistency is rare at best on the feeder tour, with even the best prospects typically going through stretches of poor form. We obviously don’t have much long-term data to draw from for Zalatoris, as the Korn Ferry Tour doesn’t give us strokes gained information, but he gained 6.5 strokes on his approaches last week and another 2.8 off the tee. On the Korn Ferry Tour he ranks first in greens in regulation, first in scoring average and fourth in birdie average. From a projection standpoint, he’s the only player who received an A+ grade this week in the Awesemo model, and he carries the highest win percentage by about 2.5 points over second place. Despite all this he’s projected to be under 20% owned on DraftKings. The venue this week will likely bring a big variety of players into the mix, but Zalatoris won’t be intimidated by this field and grades out as the best pure points play this week on the site.

The Stats:

• Leads the Korn Ferry Tour in points this year; hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in any of his starts since February
• Has gained eight or more strokes (total) against the field in all but one of his last 10 starts

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.1%| FanDuel: 33.7%

PGA DFS Pick: Xinjun Zhang: Grades: B, Values: B,A

Zhang is the type of veteran player who should excel in this water-downed field. The 31-year-old has grinded his way to the PGA, picking up wins over on the PGA China in 2018 and two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019. His ability to compete when he’s closer to being the top dog in the field has bled through to the PGA, as he picked up multiple top 10s in the fall swing last season and also grabbed a fifth at this event back in 2018 — which at the time was his best finish on tour. Zhang’s a gamer and someone we shouldn’t ignore in a field like this, especially when he’s coming in with some form. He finished 14th at the Safeway Open two weeks ago and gained just under five strokes on his approaches alone there. Despite having missed three of his last six cuts on tour, it is worth noting that all three of the made cuts produced top-15 finishes. This is very much a player who knows what to do when he gets in the mix and should set up well on a scoreable course with a solid approach game and a putter that has now gained him strokes on the greens in five of his last six events. He ranks out with the best win/top-six percentage, points projection and value rating in the $8,000 range (on DraftKings) in the site’s model this week.

The Stats:

• Ranks 15th in birdies gained in this field over the last 50 rounds
• Gained 4.8 strokes on approach last week, best statistical week in that category since he’s come on the PGA

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14%| FanDuel: 23.7%

Low-Owned GPP Flier

PGA DFS Pick: Bo Hoag

Hoag has flashed some solid form of late and could make for a decent pivot in what is shaping up to be a semi-chalky range this week on DraftKings. The 32-year-old just finished up his first full season the PGA, making the FedEx Cup playoffs on the number (125th). He showed some form towards the end of 2019-20, though, and carried that momentum over to his first start of the new season with a 29th showing at Silverado. Hoag’s ball striking has been iffy of late, but his putter has worked well, and that club has led to a lot of success around Corales for previous winners here. Hoag’s gained over a stroke putting in three of his last four starts now and won’t be nearly as highly owned as some of the names in his range like Jhonattan Vegas — who is projecting out to be one of the heaviest-owned players on any site this week. Hoag played well at another venue with paspalum greens last season, landing a 20th-place finish at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and made the cut in all of the opposite field events held this year. He may not win, but I like him to put in a solid week here, and his ownership isn’t projected to get anywhere near double digits.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 7.4%| FanDuel: 4.6%

Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Fabian Gomez ($6,700)

Gomez fits the bill as the kind of veteran who can and will show up in weaker-field events like the one we’re getting here. The two-time winner on tour carries no recent form coming in but is great at showing up out of nowhere. A 22nd at this event in 2018 came after six missed cuts and a 68th. With no one else that stands out under $7,000, Gomez is the kind of dart throw that can pay off in GPPs.

Martin Laird ($6,600)

Laird only came back to competitive golf a few weeks ago and will be making just his third start since golf restarted in June. The Scotsman struck the ball fine at the Safeway Open but had a disastrous Friday on the greens. He ranks fifth in this field in shots gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds, though, and has excelled in weaker-field events over his career.

Akshay Bhatia ($6,900)

Bhatia is an 18-year-old phenom who recently chose to bypass the college route and turn pro. He’s trying to gain some kind of status this year through exemptions and finished ninth in his last start at the Safeway Open. He was impressive in his last start, gaining over a stroke against the field in every major category. He is a complete boom-or-bust target, but we’ve already seen what he’s capable of against weaker fields.

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