The Showdown EPL DFS slate has two of the top three teams in the EPL battling for the FA Cup. Liverpool ranks first in the EPL in expected goals with 2.36 per match. They come in at +105 (BetMGM) on the moneyline and -175 (BetMGM) to win the FA Cup outright. Their defense allows 0.914 expected goals per match, which trails only Manchester City. Liverpool’s form has been outstanding coming into this cup final, with 13 wins in their last 15 matches. Two draws fill out the recent form, and they saw just three defeats in all competitions this season. Chelsea is third in expected goals with 1.75 per match. Their defense also ranks third behind Liverpool and Manchester City. Chelsea has slumped down the stretch, with just nine wins in their last 15 matches across all competitions. The three previous meetings between these two clubs have all ended in draws with varying score lines of 2-2, 0-0 and 1-1.
EPL FA Cup DFS Picks Today: DraftKings Fantasy Soccer
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings: $13,500)
Mason Mount (DraftKings: $14,700)
Mohamed Salah is the highest-salary player on the slate, and he leads the EPL in scoring and shot volume. Salah can go in the Flex for brace upside, but an assist will not pay off the
price. Because of that, Trent Alexander-Arnold is the Captain of choice regardless of the favored team. His volume on the offense is undeniable and his defensive metrics are much improved from the last year. Alexander-Arnold averages 8.04 crosses per match, with an even split between set shares and open play. He leads Liverpool with 4.56 scoring chances created, and that improved defense adds 3.84 won tackles/interceptions. His shot volume is only 1.56 per match and the accuracy is concerning at just 27%. Alexander-Arnold does offer upside in the scoring department, trailing only Salah with 12 assists on the season.
The Chelsea set share man is Mason Mount. Mount also leads the club in scoring and goal contribution, with an even split of assists and goals. Mount averages 2.77 shots per match and 6.62 crosses per match. Like Alexander-Arnold, he builds the volume via set shares and open play. Either pivot to Salah offers salary relief to load up on a combo of attackers below.
The best prop bet is Luis Diaz to have two-plus shots on target at +225 (DraftKings). Diaz is also a top GPP pivot play at the Captain spot. He averages 3.65 shots per match and hits target at a 40% accuracy clip. The strongest defender on the Chelsea backline is Antonio Rudiger, and he will be drawn to Salah. Whether it is Cesar Azpilicueta or Andreas Christensen opposite Rudiger, neither can contend with the speed of Diaz
Romelu Lukaku (DraftKings: $7,400)
Reece James (DraftKings: $7,000)
Chelsea can score with the best of them, as proven in previous matches against Liverpool and in their Champions League tie against Real Madrid. The issue is they cannot stop high-powered offenses. Romelu Lukaku is a goal-hunting option for Chelsea and comes at a fair price. The season frustration is past him, and he has been finding the back of the net for Chelsea since being reinserted into the starting 11. He averages 2.38 shots per match and is second on the team sheet in scoring. He has accomplished this in limited run and is averaging a goal every two matches. Lukaku is always a brace threat, even against the top defenses in the world.
Reece James has had his time off this season as well due to injuries. He is not shy to shoot and averages 1.76 shots per match. He builds his floor with 4.92 crosses per match and 3.21 won tackles and interceptions. His price makes him a solid pairing with Mount in a Liverpool-favored stack or a one-off option in Liverpool onslaught stacks with Alisson. James does not need a goal contribution to pay off the price.
Sadio Mane (DraftKings: $9,400)
Liverpool will draw ownership given the odds for this showdown. Sadio Mane would be the odd man out due to his high price and goal dependency. He does little in the assist department and his drawn foul volume is hampered a bit when he is the center forward, as is the case when Diaz and Salah line up alongside him. Mane still is second on the Liverpool scoring sheet and top five in the entire EPL. He is a GPP option for the goal-hunting and leverage should he find the back of the net over Salah and Diaz.
The FA Cup allows five subs, which differs from the EPL. This match also has a chance to see extra time, and those subs will be utilized. Below is a quick rundown of possible subs that could provide leverage for large-field GPPs.
Andre Robertson’s status is unknown as of right now. He offers a solid floor with set shares on his half of the pitch and just under three won tackles/interceptions. This metric should see a bump of opportunity against Mount and James. Should he not see the starting 11, Konstantinos Tsimikas comes in at $1,000 more on the salary. He is still a top play with volume, averaging 3.45 won tackles/interceptions and 9.89 crosses per match. He would overtake the abandoned set shares Robertson leaves.
Christian Pulisic has done well to contribute on goals when starting matches. Like Lukaku, he is averaging a goal every two matches in limited starts on the year. His shot volume is 1.93 per match, with an impressive on target rate of 42%. Pulisic is $7,600 and is a direct replacement for Lukaku on the roster construction if he does not start. Only a few shares will be enough to make a difference. If he starts, Timo Werner or Kai Havertz fall into the first-off-the-bench assignments to keep Chelsea loaded with goal hunters.
Diogo Jota is a top option for Liverpool off the bench. He normally replaces Diaz and then Mane slots to the winger role. Chelsea is very capable of taking the lead in this match, and Jota could find himself in with the other three attackers in search of tying the match up. Jota is concerning with a high price of $10,000. Jota would see less than 3% of MME lines is maxing because the risk of paying all that salary, but he does is tied with Mane in goals scored.
Other Options: Joel Matip (DraftKings: $4,400), Alison (DraftKings: $6,200), Marcos Alonso (DraftKings: $6,800)
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