Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Friday, Feb. 19. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projections to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS. These picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel English Premier League tournaments and cash games.
EPL Odds Report
Wolverhampton (+145) vs. Leeds United (+188), O/U 2.5
EPL DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Feb. 19
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Captain
Pedro Neto (DraftKings $17,100, FanDuel $14)
Wolverhampton have the third best home defense in the EPL with an expected goals against of 11.9 in twelve matches. That front will be tested against a Leeds United offense that ranks fifth overall in the EPL with an expected goals for of 1.48 on the road. The key difference is the expected goals advantage that Wolverhampton hold of +3.6 at home compared to Leeds -7.0 on the road. This should be a high-scoring affair as both clubs have creative set-piece men that can score.
Petro Neto averages 6.625 crosses per match to offer a solid floor for cash options. His offensive output stands at 3.875 shots and assisted shots per match. The Leeds defense allows the third most shots on target in the EPL, at 5.13 per match. They are also tied for the second-most goals allowed in the EPL, and Neto is contributing on 36% of Wolverhampton’s overall scoring.
Raphinha (DraftKings $16,200, FanDuel $12)
Raphinha is the explosive wing man on the other side of the pitch. He averages 5.11 crosses per match and 4 shots and assisted shots. Wolverhampton ranks third in shots on target, allowing 3.083 per match, so Raphinha’s output without scoring is key for a floor play. Neto will garner plenty of ownership at the captain spot, so a pivot is Raphinha is you favor Leeds in a match that sees no clear favorite. On FanDuel the captain preference play for the Leeds side resides with Patrick Bamford. He posses an on target accuracy rate of 44% and sees plenty of attempts at 3.39 per match. Bamford leads Leeds in overall scoring. Wolverhampton still lacks a replacement striker for the injured Raul Jimenez, which could spell upset against the high octane Leeds attack.
Other Options: Patrick Bamford (DraftKings $14,400, FanDuel $15), Adama Traore (DraftKings $13,200, FanDuel $8).
EPL DFS Picks: Flex
Ruben Neves (DraftKings $7,800 FanDuel $12)
Jack Harrison (DraftKings $8,400 FanDuel $13)
It is hard to pay this asking price for Ruben Neves. He certainly can break the deadlock in a hurry with attempted long range shots, at 1.91 per match. Leeds United often gets caught on the counter attack and lead the EPL in penalties conceded, at 30% of their matches, so it is not far fetched to think Neves gets his opportunity. Neves can add value with 3.043 won tackles and interceptions per match, which should see an uptick against the long range passes of Leeds attack.
Jack Harrison is overlooked due to lack of set-piece shares. He is a winger with a floor built on open-play deliveries, at 4.63 per match. Harrison is not shy to shoot and his upside lies in 3.22 shots and assisted shots per match.
Rui Patricio (DraftKings $6,800)
Illan Meslier (DraftKings $6,000)
The metrics don’t show a favorable outcome for either goalkeeper. The asking price is hard to ignore when chasing the full-game clean sheet and win bonus. Rui Patricio allows 1.33 goals per match and has a 65% save percentage, ranking outside the top-10 in the EPL. He has the defense that will limit the volume and if he can come up with a save or two, his low ownership will provide plenty of leverage on the field.
Illan Meslier should see volume given the lack of defense Leeds plays. He sits top-10 in the EPL with a 70.1% save percentage. He comes discounted over his counterpart and averages 3.9 saves per match. Let’s assume Wolverhampton break through and score, Meslier still can hit 1.5x+ value with 3-4 saves if Leeds come out on top.
Other Options: Willian Jose (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $11), Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $7), Luke Ayling (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $7), Jonny Otto (DraftKings $3,400, FanDuel $5).
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