Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, Oct. 16. Here you will find the top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks Today
Aston Villa (+115) vs. Wolverhampton (+250), O/U 2.5
Leicester City (+260) vs. Manchester United (+105), O/U 2.5
Manchester City (-750) vs. Burnley (+2,000), O/U 3.5
Norwich (+260) vs. Brighton (+105), O/U 2.5
Southampton (+135) vs. Leeds United (+185), O/U 2.5
Brentford (+525) vs. Chelsea (-175), O/U 2.5
Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel: $18)
Jack Grealish (DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel: $19)
Manchester City is second in the EPL in expected goals at home, with 2.5 per match. This fares better than their overall mark on the year of 2.14 expected goals per match. They face a tough defense in Burnley, who allows 1.61 expected goals per match. With a tight race atop the EPL, the hosts cannot overlook this match. The issue across both sites is the high cost of all the attackers from Manchester City.
Riyad Mahrez seems a little underpriced. He is second on the club in shots per match behind Kevin De Bruyne, with 3.89. He also leads the club with 6.89 scoring chances created per match and handles some indirect set shares. Mahrez would need De Bruyne to defer the indirect sets and PK attempts to him for more upside, but he still holds the scoring upside in a spread scoring attack and is priced below the other goal-hunting options. For cash, De Bruyne is viable based on the floor and open-play mix of crosses shots and scoring chances created.
Jack Grealish has a discount over De Bruyne and is a cash play should De Bruyne get a rest. Grealish creates 5.63 scoring chances per match and draws 2.46 fouls, leading the hosts. His lack of shot volume make him hard to pay up for on FanDuel with Mahrez and De Bruyne there despite poor on-target accuracy. On DraftKings two of the three can be interchanged with pieces around in a stack due to the spread scoring of the club.
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel: $18)
John McGinn (DraftKings: $5,300, FanDuel: $14)
Aston Villa has been one of the worst teams at home offensively this season, with just one expected goal per match. Despite this, they have managed to score in each home match, including a three-goal output against Everton and two against Newcastle. The Wolves are likely to be without Raul Jimenez upfront, and Villa needs to capitalize on pick-’em matches. With Manchester United, Manchester City and Brighton in a favorable spot, Aston Villa is in a solid spot to target for leverage.
Ollie Watkins has done well in his return from injury, with 3.17 shots per match and some contribution via drawn fouls and chances created. He offers little in the way of a floor, but his on-target accuracy of 53% makes him a GPP option on FanDuel and DraftKings for goal hunting. Danny Ings will handle penalties and comes with a $900 savings on DraftKings, making him a salary-relief option.
The set shares have been split for Aston Villa on the year. Emiliano Buendia and Leon Bailey are dealing with injuries. Douglas Luiz looks to miss this match, making John McGinn the responsible party. McGinn is in play in all formats with set piece shares and a price under $5,500. McGinn leads the club in drawn fouls and is a viable piece on FanDuel, with 2.89 scoring chances created and just under two attempts at the net per match.
Neal Maupay (DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel: $18)
Pascal Gross (DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel: $14)
Brighton has the best matchup on the slate. They take on Norwich, who continues their dismal defensive run allowing two expected goals per match and 2.38 actual. Brighton have played a bit higher offensive pace than previous seasons and have managed two-plus goals against Watford and Leicester City. The goal-hunting option for this matchup is Neal Maupay. He lacks the floor, but the price can be covered with one goal and nothing more. He averages 2.15 shots per match and leads the club in scoring by a wide margin. Leandro Trossard is above Maupay in shot volume, but the higher price gives the lean to the finisher for the host club.
The set piece man is Pascal Gross. His price is in line with the top options from Manchester City and Manchester United, except the monopoly of attempts is Gross’s alone. He averages 8.58 crosses per match by way of both open play and set shares. His 4.88 scoring chances per match lead the club, making him the play in all formats.
Other Options: Cristiano Ronaldo (DraftKings $8,900, FanDuel $23), Jamie Vardy (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $19), Raphinha (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $20), Mohamed Elyounoussi (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $15), Romelu Lukaku (FanDuel $22), Mason Mount (FanDuel $18), Jack Harrison (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $11). Adam Armstrong (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $17)
Luke Shaw (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel: $13)
Manchester United has a difficult matchup against Leicester City. The price for Cristiano Ronaldo will not scare away his ownership. In a matchup that could prove to end in a low scoring grind, look to target the floor play. Luke Shaw handles the indirect set shares and comes at a discount from his normal price. He averages 7.03 crosses per match, giving him a solid floor on DraftKings with upside built on 4.08 scoring chances created. On FanDuel the price looks high considering his lack of shot volume and defensive metrics.
Other Options: Marc Cucurella (DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $12), Matthew Cash (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $10), Valentino Livramento (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $9), Marcos Alonso (FanDuel $15)
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel: $10)
Alex McCarthy (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel: $9)
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