Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Saturday, Feb. 20. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projections to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS. These picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel English Premier League tournaments and cash games.
EPL Odds Report
Burnley (+100) vs. West Bromwich (+300), O/U 2.5
Liverpool (-227) vs. Everton (+600), O/U 3.5
Fulham (+115) vs. Sheffield United (+260), O/U 2.5
EPL DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Feb. 20
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Forward/Midfielder
Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $10,500, FanDuel $23)
Sadio Mane (DraftKings $10,300, FanDuel $22)
Liverpool has fallen out of the EPL title race. They are still alive in a Champions League spot for next season and have a favorable matchup against Everton. Everton sports the third-ranked road defense in the EPL. Recent form has not been favorable to them, as those expected goals have climbed from 1.33 to 1.43 per match. More notable is the actual goals allowed, which are surpassing the expected 2.25 per match in that same stretch. Liverpool is second in the EPL in home offense, with 2.02 expected goals.
Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane lead the Liverpool attack. Both are in the top five in the EPL in shot volume at 3.23 and 3.19 per match, with 40.1% and 39.7% on-target accuracy. Salah leads the EPL in scoring and handles penalty kicks for Liverpool. Mane falls just inside the top 25 in the EPL in scoring. Mane is the pivot off Salah, as both are hard to fit given the asking prices. Salah is the preferred cash play for matchup and upside with volume shooting. The cheaper pairing to a lineup with just one of Mane or Salah is Roberto Firmino. He has 2.37 shots per match and can contribute on the scoring by way of goals or assists.
James Rodriguez (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $16)
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $18)
Everton is likewise chasing a Champions League or Europa League birth. The offense has carried them to victories, averaging 1.19 expected goals per match. Liverpool’s home defense is allowing 1.62 expected goals in recent form, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin only needs a couple chances to find the back of the net. He averages 2.7 shots per match, with 57% on-target accuracy. The asking price sees him as the best value forward below $7,000.
James Rodriguez looks to return for this match and should spell Gylfi Sigurdsson. Rodriguez will handle set-piece shares and builds a floor off 4.05 crosses and 1.88 drawn fouls per match. His attack produces 3.29 shots/assisted shots and is contributing in the scoring in 47% of his appearances for Everton.
Mbaye Diagne (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $16)
Matheus Pereira (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $14)
The Burnley – West Brom matchup is interesting. West Brom has the third-worst road defense in the EPL, allowing 1.66 expected goals per match. On the opposite end, Burnley’s home offense is also third worst, allowing 0.95 expected goals per match. Burnley’s attack is priced like a top five scoring threat, so I lean that West Brom can keep this game competitive, facing relegation.
West Brom’s offense is abysmal, but Mbaye Diagne is attempting to change that at a discounted rate. He sees 1.75 shots per match in his small sample, which sees a slight bump in full-game run. Diagne was a prolific scorer for Galatasaray and Kasimpasa, with a goal in 96% of his appearance. During that same run he averaged 3.24 shots per match.
The floor play for West Brom is set-piece man Matheus Pereira. He averages 3.45 crosses per match and 3.05 shots/assisted shots per match. His upside is in the corner shares and direct free kicks he takes. Pereira has comparable help up front with Diagne, and both allow salary relief for the Liverpool attack.
Other Options: Ademola Lookman (DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $19), Oliver Norwood (DraftKings $4,000, FanDuel $10), Ashley Barnes (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $17), Dwight McNeil (DraftKings $9,600, FanDuel $15), Billy Sharp (DraftKings $5,900, FanDuel $13).
EPL DFS Picks: Defenders
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel $15)
Trent Alexander-Arnold is in a must-play spot on DraftKings for me. On FanDuel his floor is low, without crossing volume for the asking price. He averages 8.13 crosses per match and 2.95 shots/assisted shots per match. As mentioned above, the matchup works in Liverpool’s favor, and Alexander-Arnold’s aerial deliveries offer upside when the attack connects, regardless of whether or not the goal is converted.
Other Options: Jayden Bogle (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $10), Darnell Furlong (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $6), Ola Aina (DraftKings $4,800, FanDuel $13), Matthew Lowton (DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $10).
Sam Johnstone (DraftKings $4,200 FanDuel $8)
Alphonse Areola (DraftKings $5,000 FanDuel $11)
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