Welcome to the Champions League DFS coverage for Wednesday, March 9. Below are the top UCL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert fantasy soccer projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These UCL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.
UCL DFS Picks Today: DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Soccer
Manchester City (-769) vs. Sporting CP (+1,600), over/under 3.5
Real Madrid (+145) vs. Paris Saint- Germain (+165), over/under 2.5
Ilkay Gundogan (DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel $14)
Gabriel Jesus (DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel $18)
Manchester City will host Sporting CP after taking a commanding lead in the first leg 5-0. With players expected to rest, value will open up on some key members of the attack. Manchester City has the second overall offense in the EPL, with an expected goals of 2.31 per match. Sporting has a sound defense but not close to the level of the reigning EPL champions. Ilkay Gundogan will have his choice of sets and penalties with Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez expected to rest. Gundogan is a core play at the current price with an average 2.60 shots per match and an on-target rate of 33.3%. His floor is built on 4.80 crosses per match which will see a significant jump without the above-mentioned key members of the host side’s attack. In their absence a season ago Gundogan took command of the offense and finished atop the scoring list for the club. His created chance mark of 3.67 per match looks to also see a bump with the increased set role and the plus matchup.
Gabriel Jesus comes in at a discounted price, like Gundogan. Jesus has had a disappointing season in terms of goals but he has contributed via the assists and sits at a 13% contribution rate on an offense with spread scoring and a significant goal total above two per match. Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva round out the attack and feel too cheap for the matchup. The cash construction would point to a mix of three of these under $7,500 priced attackers with a defender below. This would allow a share of a Leonel Messi or Kylian Mbappe as well for goal-hunting one-offs from the other match on the two-game slate. On FanDuel Raheem Sterling would get the nod over Jesus given the same price. Sterling overs a slight advantage in the on-target department with 50% on his over 2.5 shots per match compared to Jesus’s 41%. The scoring chances created are mirrored by the two attackers, both at over three per match. The tie breaker would have to be the converted goals which Sterling leads by a clear margin.
Karim Benzema (DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel $19)
Luka Modric (DraftKings: $4,500, FanDuel $13)
The spotlight matchup is Real Madrid – Paris Saint-Germain. Real Madrid need a victory of two plus goals to advance unless they wish to test their luck in penalties. Paris Saint-Germain holds a one goal lead from the first leg so they will not sit back and absorb pressure. These teams sit atop their respective leagues in offense with over 1.85 expected goals apiece per match. The thing is both defenses are just as good.
The cash game logic would be to one off a set man from each side. Messi is worth the price and despite a down year by his standards is always a multi goal contribution upside play. Mbappe is the goal hunter with a floor build on shot volume that exceeds four per match. Despite the low goal margins Real allows, Mbappe was still firing at will and his speed does the home side no favors as they push up to find goals in a must win effort.
The GPP choice is Karim Benzema. He will not garner as much ownership on a two-game slate with Manchester City on tap and the two PSG options. Benzema has a knack for putting Madrid on his shoulders and leading them to victory. He sits atop the scoring list and contributes on 53% of their overall scoring. His 3.99 shots per match find target at a 41.4% accuracy clip. The wingman Vinicius Junior is a GPP option and comes at a reasonable discount. He has little to no floor but sits with an on-target rate of 50.1% on 2.80 attempts at the net. Luka Modric is a salary relief option. He creates 3.17 scoring chances per match and builds a floor on a mix over four won tackles, interceptions and drawn fouls. Casemiro leads the club in won tackles and interceptions with north of five per match and is expected out for the match. Modric would be in line to man the defensive midfield role and see an uptick on those metrics that would see 1.5-2x value.
Other Options: Neymar (DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel $18), Pedro Goncalves (DraftKings: $5,400, FanDuel $16), Islam Slimani (DraftKings: $3,900, FanDuel $13)
Oleksandr Zinchenko (DraftKings: $5,600, FanDuel $11)
Oleksandr Zinchenko will replace Joao Cancelo in the wingback role for Manchester City. Zinchenko averages 1.97 open-play crosses and 3.03 scoring chances created in limited runs this season. He will look to see the full match and the matchup will see his metrics with an uptick. Should Sporting see a fair number in the possession side, Zinchenko averages 3.64 won tackles/interceptions per match.
Other Options: Pedro Porro (DraftKings: $3,900, FanDuel $12), Nuno Mendes (DraftKings: $4,100, FanDuel $8), Daniel Carvajal (DraftKings: $4,200, FanDuel $12)
Thibault Courtois (DraftKings: $4,900, FanDuel $11)
Ederson (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel $14)
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL DFS home page.