Welcome to EPL DFS for July 17 (7/17/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
EPL Odds Report
West Ham (+148) vs. Watford (+245), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have we have Watford taking on West Ham United. Watford is the sixth-worst offense in the EPL with an expected goals of 43.48%. West Ham is a mid-tier offense with an expected goals of 46.16. I think both teams can sneak one past the other, but I do not see a high-event game. The odds give West Ham a slight edge, but with their awful defense even against a poor Watford defense, I see this game ending 1-1.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings $17,100, FanDuel $14)
Jarrod Bowen provides the safest floor with his volume in crossing at 4.8 per game and his set piece control. Since the return to play, he has contributed on 34% of West Ham’s goal involvement. His floor with goal involvement upside in what I expect to be a low-scoring game makes him the preferred pay-up spot on DraftKings. On FanDuel I would slot him in the forward/mid because he lacks the on-target accuracy, created chances volume and goal hunt with a Michail Antonio as a correlated combo.
Jarrod Bowen 2019-2020 stats: 3 assists, 20 shots, 48 crosses.
Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $10,800, FanDuel $9)
Aaron Cresswell is top 25 in the EPL in crossing volume and accumulates it through open play. He can add to the floor with won tackles and assisted shots, and his upside comes from his willingness to shoot. He should fall in ownership behind Bowen, Michaeil Antonio, Ismaila Sarr and Troy Deeney. I like Cresswell mainly as a salary relief that can hit value and allow you to stack up the goal involvement from both teams. On FanDuel he is a top defender option.
Aaron Cresswell 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 26 shots assisted, 120 crosses.
Ismaila Sarr (DraftKings $14,100, FanDuel $13)
Sarr is top 50 in the EPL in crossing volume. He does not take set pieces, but he can create chances and is contributing on 25% of Watford’s overall scoring. The choice between Bowen or Sarr comes down to which team you favor. The higher goal upside and discounted price have me leaning Sarr if choosing between the two because I see this game ending in a draw.
Ismaila Sarr 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 39 shots, 84 crosses, 42 fouls drawn.
Michail Antonio (DraftKings $18,300, FanDuel $16)
Troy Deeney (DraftKings $13,200, FanDuel $15)
Antonio ranks top 30 in the EPL in shot volume and hits the net at an accuracy clip of 46%. Deeney hits net at 53% accuracy, but his shot volume is a concern. Either option is goal hunting, and if this game ends up 0-0 or 1-1 and they are not part of the scoring, they will sink your lineups. Deeney might have more leeway on DraftKings. I would only use them in MME at Captain. The upside for each teams respective PK man is brace potential.
Danny Welbeck (DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $12)
Danny Welbeck comes in this game off two high-volume shooting games. The sample size is small, but it was the few times this year he has had full game run. The shot volume performances came against two of the EPL’s bottom-four worst defenses. Now he faces West Ham, who is another of those defenses with an expected goals against of 65.32%. I like the flier on him in the Flex position. There is leverage to be had slotting him in at Captain for a few shares given the small sample might prevent people from jumping aboard this early.
Will Hughes (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $8)
Will Hughes provides salary relief on both sites and a solid floor. On FanDuel he contributes with chances created, interceptions and tackles. On DraftKings his crossing volume on the team and set piece shares combined with drawn fouls and won tackles gives him a high floor. He cannot hit the net to save his life, but at least he tries and I will roster him on DraftKings where they reward shot effort.
Other Options: Abdoulaye Doucoure (DraftKings $4,200, FanDuel $9), Tomas Soucek (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $9), Adam Masina (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $5), Ryan Fredericks (DraftKings $6,000, FanDuel $10), Issa Diop (DraftKings $3,400, FanDuel $8)