Welcome to EPL DFS for July 21 (7/21/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
Sports are back and we’re giving you your first month of Awesemo+ half-off when you use promo code RESTART at checkout. That’s only $45 for a month of Awesemo’s leading DFS projections, tools and content for NBA, MLB, PGA and more! Celebrate the return of sports with this great deal, you won’t find a better value anywhere else. This offer is valid through Aug. 3.
EPL Odds Report
Aston Villa (+255) vs. Arsenal (-104), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have Arsenal taking on Aston Villa. Aston Villa is fighting to avoid relegation, but their defense has struggled all year, sitting last in the EPL with an expected goals against of 65.6. Arsenal has an improved defense, but they also allow a high volume of shots on target and a below-average expected goals against of 52.8. Offensively Arsenal is mid-tier with an expected goals for of 46.9, while Aston Villa struggles at the bottom with an expected goals for of 39.5. I give the edge to Arsenal for a 2-0 victory.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (DraftKings $16,200, FanDuel $16)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ranks 11th in the EPL in shot volume and hits target at an accuracy clip of 44.7%. He ranks third in overall scoring, and the matchup against Aston Villa’s worst-ranked defense will give him plenty of opportunity to add to the tally. Aubameyang can also contribute with assisted shots and 2.47 crosses from open play.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2019-2020 stats: 20 goals, 87 shots, 84 crosses.
Jack Grealish (DraftKings $15,600, FanDuel $14)
Jack Grealish does everything for Aston Villa with two shots, 4.71 fouls drawn and 2.56 assisted shots per game. I do not think Aston Villa can score on the much improved Arsenal defense, but Grealish has upside despite not scoring. He is top 20 in the EPL in crossing volume and controls the set pieces for Villa.
Jack Grealish 2019-2020 stats: 7 goals, 6 assists, 87 shots assisted, 133 crosses.
Alexandre Lacazette (DraftKings $13,200, FanDuel $15)
Alexandre Lacazette is coming to form at the right time. He is an option for GPP’s because his shot volume and goals are required for any relevance. I do not think this will be a high-scoring affair, and exposure to Lacazette would give you leverage on Aubameyang, Grealish and Nicolas Pepe. They should all control the Captain ownership. Lacazette is top 45 in the EPL in shot volume with on-target accuracy of 49% and has played a handful of games fewer than players above him.
Other Options: Nicolas Pepe (DraftKings $13,500, FanDuel $13)
Trezeguet (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $9)
Conor Hourihane (DraftKings $9,400, FanDuel $11)
Trezeguet is an active winger and provides salary relief with a solid floor. In games where he gets the minutes, he takes chances at the net and can cross from open play. Conor Hourihane is a more expensive option, but he makes the offense tick a bit better, taking attention away from Grealish. He is active with shot volume and assisted shots as well and is just under four crosses per game from open play.
Trezeguet 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 46 shots, 65 crosses.
Conor Hourihane 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 96 crosses.
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings $7,000)
Emiliano Martinez has been stellar for Arsenal. He will see volume in this game, and, with win equity behind him, I think the price is too low. Even without taking clean sheet into consideration, Arsenal is allowing over six shots on target in their last five games. Aston Villa takes shots from outside the box and that much volume is a big risk, but you are not giving up a lot to fit him in your lineup. He also has been able to neutralize Manchester City, Liverpool, Wolverhampton and Leicester City in his recent games, so I am not as worried about Aston Villa’s attackers getting many by him.
Other Options: Bukayo Saka (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $8), Cedric Soares (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $7), Douglas Luiz (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $7), John McGinn (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $8), Anwar El Ghazi (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $7),