Welcome to EPL DFS for July 21 (7/21/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
Sports are back and we’re giving you your first month of Awesemo+ half-off when you use promo code RESTART at checkout. That’s only $45 for a month of Awesemo’s leading DFS projections, tools and content for NBA, MLB, PGA and more! Celebrate the return of sports with this great deal, you won’t find a better value anywhere else. This offer is valid through Aug. 3.
EPL Odds Report
Manchester United (-480) vs. West Ham (+1,200), O/U 3.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have a Manchester United taking on West Ham United. Both teams have a lot to play for, as Manchester United needs the win to jump into Champions League contention as a top-four team in the EPL, while West Ham looks to avoid relegation. Manchester United is currently sporting the EPL’s third-best defense with an expected goals against of 34.4. West Ham is sitting second to last in the EPL with an expected goals against of 61.7, but their defense has been much improved since the return to play, not allowing more than two goals in a single game. I like Manchester United after the FA Cup loss and cannot see the West Ham defense holding down the fifth-ranked offense.
As far as David de Gea goes, I do not think he is viable. He is sitting at $6,800 and playing him will cost you salary to spread on Manchester United’s offense. De Gea can drown your lineup with an allowed goal, and the clean sheet win bonus can be nullified with two defenders, both of which come at less salary than the keeper. If Manchester United takes the game 3-0, you need concentrated scoring to have de Gea help you jump the field at games end. I like Manchester United to close this game out 3-1.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Bruno Fernandez (DraftKings $17,400)
Anthony Martial (DraftKings $15,000)
Marcus Rashford (DraftKings $15,300)
Bruno Fernandez comes into this showdown at a cost far higher than his teammates. He handles set pieces for Manchester United and is contributing on goals in every game played. He is averaging 5.67 shots/assisted shots and 5.67 crosses per game. Given the importance of this game, I expect the Manchester United attack to be heavily involved and look to punish West Ham. My concern is the price on Fernandez, so I would look at Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford.
Martial and Rashford are top 20 in the EPL in shot volume and hovering above 45% on-target accuracy. With their price being close, my preference is Martial because I think he goes the least owned of the three in the Captain spot. Also, even the small savings allows you to fit in more activity on the Manchester attack, which spreads their goal contributions around. In a cash core I would slot in Fernandez at the Captain spot because of the high floor and goal involvement.
Bruno Fernandez 2019-2020 stats: 7 goals, 7 assists, 41 shots, 68 crosses.
Anthony Martial 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 76 shots.
Marcus Rashford 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 92 shots.
Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings $13,200)
Jarrod Bowen brings a solid floor to the table with set piece control and 4.91 crosses per game. West Ham need points to avoid relegation, so look for them to put up a fight to the end in this matchup. Bowen can be a sneaky GPP Captain with attention going to the Manchester United attack. His upside comes in his goal involvement, where he has been able to contribute on average in every two games played. Bowen can draw fouls, assist on shots and is not shy to shoot.
Jarrod Bowen 2019-2020 stats: 4 assists, 21 shots, 54 crosses.
Michail Antonio (DraftKings $9,600)
Michail Antonio is top 30 in the EPL in shot volume with an accuracy clip of 46%. He has been on a scoring streak since returning to play, albeit one game was against Norwich, but what is more impressive is the shot volume. He is averaging four shots per game in that time frame, while also assisting on shots and drawing fouls. Antonio needs goals to pay off his price, and with 26% contribution to West Ham’s overall scoring, he would be the man to find the back of the net in a West Ham upset.
Mason Greenwood (DraftKings $7,800)
Like with Phil Foden yesterday, I am not ready to write off the Manchester United forgotten man. Mason Greenwood has slowed down his production in recent form, but the attention to the other big three of the attack could leave open opportunities for him. Greenwood has five goal contributions in seven games since return to play to go along with 2.58 shots per game. Slotting Greenwood over one of the other big three attack men in this offense already makes your lineup unique in a GPP and gives you exposure to the spread-out scoring.
Mason Greenwood 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 35 shots.
Other Options: Aaron Wan-Bissaka (DraftKings $6,000), Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $5,600), Paul Pogba (DraftKings $6,200), Brandon Williams (DraftKings $4,600) (If Luke Shaw is out), Tomas Soucek (DraftKings $5,200).