Welcome to EPL DFS for Oct. 17. Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
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EPL Odds Report
Chelsea (-205) vs. Southampton (+525), O/U 3.5
Manchester City (-245) vs. Arsenal (+575), O/U 3.5
Newcastle United (+400) vs. Manchester United (-159), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Marcus Rashford (DraftKings $7,600 FanDuel $21)
Bruno Fernandez (DraftKings $10,000 FanDuel $19)
Mason Greenwood (DraftKings $7,100 FanDuel $17)
Manchester United are desperate to right the ship and this is the spot to do so as the road favorites. Without the services of newly aquired Edison Cavani and suspended Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford will have plenty of opportunity to lead the club and comes at a sub-$8,000 tag. He is currently averaging just a shot a game and distributing more with as many assisted shots and created opportunities. I like him to take more chances and return to his form from a season ago where he sat top 15 in the EPL with 2.7 shots per game and a goal in 54% of his appearances.
He is a solid GPP pivot, and the all-format option comes in the form of Bruno Fernandez. Fernandez continues to monopolize the set pieces for his club and leads the offense in overall scoring. His floor is high, and the PK man has been a lone bright spot to start the campaign. He averaged a goal contribution in every appearance for the club last season, and the trend continues into this young season. Fernandez led the club in corner kicks, despite playing less than half the games, and to his value with 1.85 won tackles and interceptions per game to mirror the 4.07 scoring chances created per game.
A GPP pivot is Mason Greenwood. You will see him go overlooked, but his inability to find the back of the net this year is not for lack of trying. Greenwood is averaging 2.33 shots per game and one drawn foul per game. With attention concentrated on stopping Fernandez and Rasford, Greenwood will see the opportunities to make his claim to remain in the starting eleven.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (DraftKings $7,900 FanDuel $19)
Alexandre Lacazette (DraftKings $7,700 FanDuel $17)
If there ever was a good time to face Manchester City, it would be this one. Kevin De Bruyne could be sidelined with an injury during his Belgium international service. The depleted Manchester City squad already is missing Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang took international leave to rest and is coming in at a discounted price against a defense that sits below mid tier in the EPL with an expected goals against of 5.2. Last season Aubameyang ranked top 10 in the EPL in shot volume, with an on target accuracy clip of 44.4%, and finished second in the Golden Boot race. You will not find many consistent goal scorers at this price range, but be cautious if Manchester City does have the services of De Bruyne to control the temple of the game.
The mid-tier Arsenal offense, with an expected goals for of 4.7, is led on the year by Alexandre Lacazette. Lacazette can disappear quickly without a goal but has benefited from the service game of teammates Willian and Nicolas Pepe. If Pepe gets the start, I also like him because of the volume crosses he posses and goal contributions.
Callum Wilson (DraftKings $6,000 FanDuel $15)
Kai Havertz (DraftKings $7,700 FanDuel $18)
The attention of the slate will drive ownership on the expected return of Christian Pulisic, Bruno Fernandez and Timo Werner. I will have shares of all, but I like the value in goal hunting with Callum Wilson and Kai Havertz. Wilson will be low owned and has been a solid attention to Newcastle United, leading them in goal scoring at an average of a goal a game. He gets a favored matchup against a Manchester defense that is allowing an expected goals against of 7.8, ranking them third worst in the EPL. Wilson is averaging 1.75 shots per game and is the PK beneficiary of the chaos caused around the box from the foul drawing Allan Saint-Maximin.
Kai Havertz serves as a combo piece to teammates Werner and Pulisic. He should remain in the front line, pushing Mason Mount to the midfield and makes a solid GPP pivot. Havertz has yet to find his goal-scoring form from a year removed in the Bundesliga but he leads the club in scoring chances created and drawn fouls. His upside is in multi-point game, with the star-studded teammates around. If Hakim Ziyech makes his debut, he can consume volume of assisted shots, shots and crosses and is a scary fade. I will still stay off him because the minutes and lack of game action on a new club steer me away form the high price tag.
Other Options: Christian Pulisic (DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $16), Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $21), Jonjo Shelvey (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $8), Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $19), Timo Werner (DraftKings $8,100, FanDuel $20), Danny Ings (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $17).
Emil Krafth (DraftKings $3,200 FanDuel $8)
I like paying down for the defense today. I will not fade the likes of Ben Chillwell, Reece James, or Benjamin Mendy. You are going to need salary relief, and the matches look closer than the odds to me. Emil Krafth could get the play if Jamal Lewis is inactive. He serves as salary relief and can contribute with crosses, tackles and clears. If he lines up in the center back role I prefer him on FanDuel, and if he is on the wing back role, I prefer him on DraftKings. You can pay up for Javier Manquillo, depending on the formation, or Federico Fernandez who is in the same price range. The volume of crosses and pushing up for offensive upside on DraftKings would steer me to which of the three is on the wings and clears opportunities to which stay in the center back on FanDuel.
Benjamin Mendy (DraftKings $4,200 FanDuel $10)
Benjamin Mendy is still coming in at a reduced cost. He has a poor start to the campaign but continues to push up the offensive wing. I like him a lot more if Manchester is depleted up front, as he will look to be more of a creator for the club. The wingback averaged 1.89 scoring chances a game, 1.52 tackles and interceptions per game, and 3.63 crosses per game a season ago, and I still am not convinced it was a fluke.
Other Options: Reece James (DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $14), Gabriel Magalhaes (DraftKings $3,200, FanDuel $14), Ryan Bertand (DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $13), Cesar Azpilicueta (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $12), Kyle Walker (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $10).
Bernd Leno (DraftKings $3,800 FanDuel $8)
Karl Darlow (DraftKings $4,100 FanDuel $7)
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