Welcome one, welcome all, to the King of the Pitch EPL DFS breakdown for Gameweek 8! It’ll consist of a comprehensive game breakdown for each team, as well as an overall diagnosis of the slate ahead for both your main, and tournament builds. We’ve got great Fantasy Premier League (FPL) content each and every week here at Awesemo, so stay up to date on it all by following @Awesemo_Com & @tristanhoh on Twitter.
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Updates with Lineups Released
Will be posted around 9:15AM EST Saturday.
Everton (+150) @ Burnley (+185) – OU 2.5 (+110 over)
Everton: Burnley are in the bottom four in xG allowed, making this a tough spot for Everton, who are in need of some results. I really don’t see how you can play anyone not named Lucas Digne though. His defender eligibility and set piece share makes him an appealing option every week with Everton. The overpriced attack consisting of Gylfi Sigurdsson, Richarlison, Alex Iwobi and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are unappealing against a Burnley team who rarely allow goals in bunches.
Burnley: Goal variance hit Chris Wood like a train with goals in consecutive matches. It’s an unappealing spot, but until his price is raised, he remains in the GPP mix, especially when at home. The price on Ashley Barnes is starting to creep down—his penalty duty sometimes make him a better play than Wood. He’s got brace upside and even in a subpar matchup, he should be in consideration. The Dwight McNeil/Ashley Westwood share of set pieces is somewhat annoying for fantasy, yet also makes them somewhat appealing. At home against an Everton team that hasn’t looked impenetrable, they’re fine options with safe floors but limited upside.
Core Options: Lucas Digne
Leicester City (+575) @ Liverpool (-220) – OU 2.5 (-160 over)
Leicester: On the road at Anfield is a tough ask for any opponent, but Leicester will be up for it. The Reds have not looked their usual self of late, especially defensively. That said, they’ll dominate the match for the most part, leaving Leicester exposure tough to get behind. The usual suspects on Leicester are most viable–James Maddison and Jamie Vardy. If they score, chances are it’s through one, or both of these two.
Liverpool: As we know, the production flows through the front three and fullback Trent Alexander-Arnold. Alexander-Arnold is always backable as a core option at the thin defender spot in soccer DFS. Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino all feel overpriced in this spot, where a revamped Leicester will look to stymie them as much as possible. Part of that is probably due to the lack of other large favorites on the slate. There are other places to go, and a Liverpool team at just -220 is not a core piece in my eyes. Obviously, the Liverpool front three always deserve consideration, I couldn’t hate on anyone who had Salah in their core. I don’t see them as jammed in locks as some may suspect though.
Core Options: Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Aston Villa (+185) @ Norwich City (+140) – OU 2.5 (-170 over)
A. Villa: As Norwich matches typically go, this one has the highest over/under on the slate. We should treat it as such. Norwich have struggled mightily to keep goals out on the road, but now they come back home where they’re favored. While Jack Grealish and John McGinn continue to see price increases, I’ll likely look to get off of them a bit. The presence of Conor Hourihane hurt their value since he takes most of the set pieces. Even if Hourihane doesn’t start, I’m not sure Grealish/McGinn will have a say in set pieces with Trezeguet on the pitch. Trezeguet himself is someone I find underpriced and may look to target heavily in this spot. I don’t hate the idea of rostering Wesley or either of the fullbacks either.
Norwich: Is it time for the [Teemu] Pukki party to return? He’s certainly priced like it’s ready to return. It feels an obvious spot to load up on the Pukki monster in tournaments, but probably best to sway away on your main teams. Someone who deserves consideration in all formats this weekend is Emiliano Buendia, who literally takes all of Norwich’s set pieces. Need I say more? He’s not the best creator for himself for scoring positions, but one of these days he’ll nab a goal and it’ll be Yahtzee for his owners.
Core Options: Trezeguet, Emiliano Buendia
Sheffield United (+260) @ Watford (+115) – OU 2.5 (even over)
SheffieldU: This is an awfully weird spot for Sheffield. Watford have looked inept on defense, but will Sheffield be able to take advantage of that here on the road? We’ve got some very cheap strikers on our hands for Sheffield, and while I’d love to sit here and say they’re great options, the odds they bust are still relatively high. At their prices though, you could absolutely make worse plays than Oliver McBurnie or Calum Robinson. It’s almost a clean split of set pieces between Oliver Norwood and John Fleck, which makes them both rather unappealing until one starts while the other sits.
Watford: Gerard Deulofeu’s outlook was on the up until he was yanked at halftime last weekend. Assuming he doesn’t start, both Jose Holebas and Roberto Pereyra make for appealing mid-range options at their respective positions. They’d more than likely split the set pieces. Even if Deulofeu starts, I really fancy Pereyra in this spot at his price. If we end up seeing Deulofeu in the starting XI, he’s somewhere in the middle of safe with expected set pieces, but a risk at an early substitution. Last up are Danny Welbeck, Ismalia Sarr and Tom Cleverley rounding out the attack. In this spot at their prices, I see them all as viable for cheap goal involvement.
Core Options: Roberto Pereyra
Crystal Palace (+280) @ West Ham United (EVEN) – OU 2.5 (-130 over)
CPalace: Luka Milivojevich will serve a one-match suspension for yellow card accumulation, which opens up all the set pieces for Palace. The most likely taker is Andros Townsend, who should slide back into the XI in lieu of the Serbian midfielder. He’s taken four corners to Milivojevich’s 48 (no one else has taken any this season). At sub-$7,000, Townsend is a big bargain, but there’s always some risk that he doesn’t start given that they play in the 12:30 match. Wilfried Zaha is still in search of his first goal, but against a West Ham defense that can be leaky at times, it could finally come. Jordan Ayew is goal or bust, as always.
WHUnited: Pablo Fornals was great in place of the injured Manuel Lanzini in GW7, but his run of consecutive starts is probably over. Lanzini is starting to look priced out with the goal involvement little and far between. Such a creative player in such a strong role of set pieces will surely get into a few goals, but it’s not easy to pay that price tag for him. Sebastien Haller is still the most dangerous player in this attack and merits GPP interest each week, as does Felipe Anderson.
Core Options: Andros Townsend
Tier 1 ($$$) F/M: Salah, Mane, Firmino
T2 ($$) F/M: Haller, Pukki, Buendia
T3 ($) F/M: Anderson, Grealish, Trezeguet, Lanzini, Watford Attack
Defender: CB’s on the road tend to fare best in FD’s scoring format / Leicester D’s, Sheffield United D’s
Goalkeeper: Adrian, Pickford, Foster
While I’m not the highest on Liverpool, it’s hard to sway away from them on FanDuel where they reward goals so highly. There are also a ton of exceptional plays in the value tier, making 1-2 Liverpoolian studs easy fits.
Here are a few of my preferred options per position for a main build, followed by a GPP ‘one off’ option.
Main Build: Salah, Townsend, McNeil (F), Buendia, Trezeguet, Pereyra (M), Alexander-Arnold, Digne, Byram (D)
GPP: Welbeck (F), Lanzini (M), Janmaat (D)
Thanks for reading!