Welcome to EPL DFS for July 22 (7/22/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
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EPL Odds Report
Liverpool (-104) vs. Chelsea (+275), O/U 2.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have Liverpool taking on Chelsea. Both teams have strong defenses in the top five of the EPL with expected goals against of 38.5 and 36.5, respectively. Liverpool’s offense sits second in the EPL with an expected goals for of 68.6, while Chelsea ranks third with an expected goals for of 64.4. This will be a tough game to call and I can see a 2-2 game because the fire power both offense posses.
Kepa Arrizabalaga and Alisson are interesting considerations today. I expect both to see plenty of shot volume and talent-wise give the edge to Alisson. In a low-scoring game, playing the keeper for the side you think can win should bring massive upside with saves and a win, regardless to a clean sheet.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $16,200, FanDuel $15)
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $11,700, FanDuel $10)
Sadio Mane (DraftKings $14,400, FanDuel $14)
Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane both rank in the top 10 of the EPL in overall scoring. Salah leads the EPL in shot volume and hits target 44.4% of the time, while Mane comes in top 20 in shot volume with an on-target accuracy of 46.7%. Both can compliment each other with crosses, and for a more balanced salary build, I would lean to Mane on DraftKings and Salah on FanDuel. On DraftKings you also have the option to roster Trent Alexander-Arnold as the Captain.
Alexander-Arnold leads the EPL in crossing volume and controls the set pieces for Liverpool. He brings goal involvement and ranks second overall in assists. Alexander-Arnold comes discounted from both Salah and Mane and allows you to play both in the flex for maximum exposure to the Liverpool goal involvement trio. I expect he will be the highest-owned Captain because of the floor he provides, so cash games he is the go-to, but for GPPs I would pivot to one of the other two and come underweight on his Captain ownership.
Mohamed Salah 2019-2020 stats: 19 goals, 9 assists, 126 shots.
Sadio Mane 2019-2020 stats: 17 goals, 7 assists, 76 shots.
Trent Alexander-Arnold 2019-2020 stats: 12 assists, 43 shots, 377 crosses.
Willian (DraftKings $15,600, FanDuel $14)
Willian is your go-to man on the Chelsea side of things. He ranks 12th in the EPL in crossing volume, takes set pieces and penalty kicks. Willian contributes on 25% of Chelsea’s overall scoring, and the urgency of the game should give him full game run. His upside is in goal involvement, averaging 4.18 shots and assisted shots per game. The 40% on-target shooting also makes me like him at the Captain spot on FanDuel.
Willian 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 70 shots, 172 crosses.
Marcos Alonso (DraftKings $9,900, FanDuel $8)
Cesar Azpilicueta (DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $9)
Marcos Alonso averages 3.19 shots and assisted shots and 3.82 crosses per game. The question is if he plays and how long. If he starts, I like the discounted salary because he allows you to pay up for the stars on both teams in the Flex. Cesar Azpilicueta is top 25 in the EPL in crossing volume and is averaging 2.09 shots and assisted shots per game. If Alonso is out, Azpilicueta becomes a top priority for me in the lineup. But with Alonso’s questionable defensive skills, I expect Azpilicueta to sit back more, limiting his offensive upside. You can even throw Reece James into the conversation if all three wingbacks play.
Other Options: Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $11,400, FanDuel $9).
Roberto Firmino (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $12)
Roberto Firmino trails only Salah and Raul Jimenez atop the EPL in shots. He is attempting to score but cannot break the drought. Firmino serves as a GPP play because his string of poor runs should have him overlooked as should the fact that he has no floor. With an average of 4.09 shots and assisted shots per game, I find it hard to believe he will continue to remain off the box score.
Roberto Firmino 2019-2020 stats: 8 goals, 7 assists, 98 shots.
Christian Pulisic (DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $11)
Christian Pulisic should be ready to go for this prime matchup. He contributes on 18% of Chelsea’s overall scoring and has played 10 games fewer than Willian. His value is in the shots and assisted shots, which he averages 3.79 per game. You can look to Captain him, but I think he will be over-owned at the spot, so the leverage trade-off for the risk is not there.
Christian Pulisic 2019-2020 stats: 8 goals, 59 shots.
Other Options: Ross Barkley (DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $6), Mason Mount (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $9), Olivier Giroud (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $13), Fabinho (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $7).