Welcome to MLS DFS for July 28 (7/28/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
MLS Odds Report
Columbus Crew (+112) vs. Minnesota United (+235), O/U 2.5
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The MLS DFS Breakdown
This MLS showdown features the Columbus Crew coming in as slight favorites over Minnesota United. Minnesota comes in fourth in expected goals at 8.4, While the Columbus Crew is eighth in the MLS with 7.2. Both teams are mid-tier with 12.4 shots per game for Minnesota and 10.6 shots per game for Columbus. Defensively, Columbus allows the fourth-fewest shots on target at 14, while Minnesota is not far behind, allowing 17 shots on target.
I expect this to be a defensive game that will ultimately finish 1-0 in Columbus’s favor.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
Jan Gregus (DraftKings $17,400)
Pedro Santos (DraftKings $14,400)
In a game I expect to be a grind-it-out, defensive battle, I like the safety of the set piece takers. Jan Gregus ranks first in the MLS in crossing volume and is contributing on 42% of Minnesota’s overall scoring. Gregus can add to his floor with shots and assisted shots, of which he averages 3.6 per game.
Pedro Santos is in the top 15 in the MLS in crossing volume despite missing a game in the early goings. He is averaging 2.75 shots and assisted shots per game with an on-target accuracy of 58%. I will mix up both Gregus and Santos in the Captain spot and use the other as a one-off if running a keeper from the other team because they can hit value without scoring.
Jan Gregus 2019-2020 stats: 4 assists, 9 shots, 36 crosses.
Pedro Santos 2019-2020 stats: 7 shots, 19 crosses, 8 fouls drawn.
Lucas Zelarayan (DraftKings $17,700)
Lucas Zalarayan is the most expensive player, and the goal involvement of 46% on Columbus’s overall scoring is built into that. He can get involved in set pieces, but the price is hard to lock in. With multi-point upside, I will fit him in the lineup and pay down elsewhere.
Lucas Zelarayan 2019-2020 stats: 3 goals, 9 shots, 16 crosses.
Gyasi Zardes (DraftKings $9,800)
Luis Amarilla (DraftKings $9,200)
Gyasi Zardes needs goals to hit value. He has been on a scoring spree in the tournament, and I like him if you are goal hunting but cannot get to him at the Captain spot mainly for lack of shot volume. Luis Amarilla needs goals as well at this price, but his shot volume and price discount make him more appealing. The case for Captaining any of these two is for the salary to fit in the higher-priced attackers and have goal involvement exposure.
Gyasi Zardes 2019-2020 stats: 4 goals, 8 shots.
Luis Amarilla 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 14 shots.
Chase Gasper (DraftKings $5,600)
Romain Metanire (DraftKings $6,800)
Chase Gasper provides salary relief and can get active on the wings for Minnesota. His crossing volume from open play should continue, and with added interceptions he can pay off his price. Romain Metanire comes in priced higher but with more consistency. He averages five crosses, 2.4 tackles won and interceptions per game. I prefer Metanire when he is on the side of Ethan Finlay for a more active attack.
Chase Gasper 2019-2020 stats: 14 crosses, 14 interceptions.
Romain Metanire 2019-2020 stats: 20 crosses, 5 won tackles, 5 fouls drawn.
Harrison Afful (DraftKings $6,200)
Andrew Tarbell (DraftKings $7,600)
Harrison Afful is an active wing back like Metanire above. Afful can contribute with open play crosses and three won tackles/interceptions per game. His defensive volume should increase if Columbus takes the lead first, as they will likely sit back and absorb Minnesota’s pressure.
Andrew Tarbell comes with the same risk all keepers do. He is priced up, but Columbus has only been scored on once in the short season and has posted four shutouts, which leads the MLS. If Columbus win this game 1-0 or 2-0, you will need Tarbell in your lineup. I like pairing Afful and Tarbell together for the upside they bring with a clean sheet, but I would not make it a point to go over the field on Tarbell.
Other Options: Ethan Finlay (DraftKings $8,000), Luis Diaz (DraftKings $7,800), Darlington Nagbe (DraftKings $4,200), Tyler Miller (DraftKings $5,400).