Welcome to MLS DFS for July 8 (7/8/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
Other English Premier League DFS content this week:
- The EPL DFS Primer – Learn How to Play on DraftKings + FanDuel
- The EPL Strategy Show with Jovanni and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker”
MLS Odds Report
Orlando City (+195) vs. Inter Miami (+132), O/U 3
The MLS DFS Breakdown
In this showdown we have Orlando City taking on Inter Miami. Both teams are without a win on the abbreviated season before the Covid hiatus. Last year Orlando’s defense ranked fifth overall with an expected goals against of 43.3%. They remain solid in two games this season allowing a goal per game. There struggles come on offense, ranking fifth worst in the MLS with an expected goals for of 43.7%. Inter Miami is an expansion team so little data is available, but they have some talent on the team.
They acquired Luis Robles form NYRB who is an outstanding Keeper. They also added Rodalfo Pizzaro from Monterrey in Liga MX after winning a championship. Ben Sweat comes from a top defense last year in NYCFC. Will Trapp comes form another sound defensive team in Columbus as well as Romain Torres form the Seattle Sounders.
I expect this to be a low scoring game and odds point to a 1-1 tie giving no team the edge. The form of each team is hard to predict with no action, except for two games, on the year. One thing to note in MLS is two assists are awarded on goals.
These picks are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Note: For players not used in the Captain or MVP spot, they are priority in Flex.
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Rodalfo Pizzaro (DraftKings $16,200)
Rodalfo Pizzaro was Inter Miami’s most exciting signing as an MLS expansion team and he has not disappointed so far. He has a goal in two games this year, but that is not what he has been none for. Pizzaro was more of the set up man for Monterrey and before the arrival of Miguel Layun he took set pieces. He continues to play the wing and center attacking mid so he will have opportunists to cross and shoot. His set piece role is not yet known and i suspect Lewis Morgan will be controlling those for Inter Miami. Pizzaro brings a floor in fouls drawn and that volume should continue as he handles the ball a lot and is hard to disposes.
Rodalfo Pizaaro 2019-2020 stats: 1 goal, 6 shots, 10 fouls drawn.
Lewis Morgan (DraftKings $13,200)
So far Lewis Morgan seems to be the set piece man for Inter Miami. He comes in discounted from Pizzaro and can contribute with assisted shots and shots. I prefer him at the captain spot given the discount and the expected low scoring affair. The ownership likely goes more to Pizzaro and Nani from Orlando City.
Lewis Morgan 2019-2020 stats: 21 crosses, 5 shots, 5 shots assisted.
Nani (DraftKings $15,000)
Nani has yet to play this year for Orlando City. He should be back for this game and last season he ranked second on the team in shot volume and top-50 in the MLS. His on target accuracy was 34% and he ranked fifteenth in the MLS in goal scoring. Nani led his team in crossing volume and controls the set pieces.
Nani 2018-2019 stats: 12 goals, 121 crosses.
Other Options: Dom Dwyer (DraftKings $15,000) (If active).
Chris Mueller (DraftKings $6,600)
Ruan is not expected to play in this game and if that is the case I give a bump to Chris Mueller. he shares set pieces with Nani and ranked third overall on the team in crossing volume. Mueller ranks fourth on the team in shot volume and is 33% accurate.
Chris Mueller 2018-2019 stats: 5 goals, 36 shots, 75 crosses.
Tesho Akindele (DraftKings $9,400)
Teshko Akindele ranked third on Orlando last season in shot volume and was 46.5% accurate. The concern with him is he does not have a floor. Without goals he can bust and the price tag is high.
Tesho Akindele 2018-2019 stats: 10 goals, 43 shots.
Luis Robles (DraftKings $7,600)/Pedro Gallese (DraftKings $7,000)
The odds imply a score total of 3. I do not see this game reaching that with solid defenders and first game back without a lot of training as a team for each. Robles throughout his career is one of the better keepers in the MLS and with NYRB last two seasons he averaged 2.48 saves per game and twenty three clean sheets. Pedro Gallese is the Peru national team keeper and former Veracruz keeper form Liga MX. Throughout his career he has averaged less than two goals allowed per ninety minutes. You can roll with one of these keepers if you like a team for a 1-0 victory but like with all leagues any goal can hurt there value.
Joao Moutinho (DraftKings $5,800)
Joao Moutinho is an active wing back for Orlando. He can push the ball up the wing and crosses form open play. If Nani was not set to return I would consider him in the Captain spot because of his floor. In the flex spot he offers crossing volume form open play, tackles won, interceptions and he will take some shots.
Joao Moutinho 2019-2020 stats: 10 crosses, 6 interceptions.
Ben Sweat (DraftKings $4,200)
Ben Sweat is the wing back that can push up the ball for Miami. He can contribute through won tackles and interceptions. Last two seasons in the MLS for NYCFC he averaged two crosses per game in limited appearances and minutes. With a more consistent role for Miami I think his volume will increase.
Other Options: Robbie Robinson (DraftKings $8,200), Junior Urso (DraftKings $7,200), Will Trapp (DraftKings $6,200).