It’s Day Two of this tennis DFS week, and with that comes a massive slate. There are 27 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We have thoughts on Andy Murray and Pablo Carreno Busta, so let’s dive in.
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Andy Murray (DraftKings $10,300; FanDuel N/A)
Andy Murray has played some excellent tennis given his injury stint as he’s 4-3 in his last seven matches. His last three losses were against top-25 players, and he took two of them to three sets. Murray is serving aces at a 10% rate during this run while winning just 71% of first service points. While the stats might not be attractive, he hasn’t had the easiest competition to go up against. He finally gets an easier match to work with today, so we’re going to ride with it.
Murray will face off against Kimmer Coppejans, the ATP world number 158 from Belgium. Coppejans strives on the clay courts, but he hasn’t been able to match that level on the hard surfaces. He is just 4-4 on the year while not facing a single player ranked inside the top 100. Kimmer is just 1-3 against top-100 players in his career on hard courts, and I don’t see him getting that second win today. I expect Andy to win in straight sets.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (DraftKings $8,900; FanDuel N/A)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been solid on the hard courts since Wimbledon, with an 8-8 record on the surface. She reached the finals in Osaka one month ago, blowing out two top-15 players along the way. Pavlyuchenkova is back home in Russia this week, and I think the home crowd advantage and the indoor court will be in her favor. She’s 16-9 in this tournament in her career and I expect her to get a few more this week.
Pavlyuchenkova has a meeting with Maria Sakkari, the WTA world number 29 from Greece. Sakkari has had a wrist injury for well over a month and she has withdrawn from every tournament since the U.S. Open. She’s 13-11 in 2019 on hard courts, but only 6-7 against top-50 players. These two have faced against each other just once on a clay court with Sakkari coming out on top. I think the edge goes to Pavlyuchenkova in this one, given Sakkari’s injury and the court speed.
Pablo Carreno Busta (DraftKings $8,600; FanDuel N/A)
Pablo Carreno Busta has been stellar since the U.S. Open with a 10-3 record while capturing a title in Chengdu. He’s taken down five top-40 players in straight sets during this run, and I expect another deep run this week. Carreno Busta is winning 77% of first serve points while holding serve 90% of the time, and he’s been even better on the return end. He had 43 break point chances during his last five matches while converting on 14 of them.
Carreno Busta will go up against John Millman, the ATP world number 52 from Australia. Millman has been playing some great tennis over the last two weeks, winning seven out of his last nine matches. However, you never know which Millman is going to show up. He has been rather inconsistent throughout the year and he has just two wins against top-50 players. Carreno Busta won their last meeting on hard courts in straight sets, and I think that will happen again today.
Possible upset/value plays: Kristina Mladenovic (DraftKings $7,600; FanDuel N/A)
Kristina Mladenovic has had a somewhat successful Asia swing with a 7-5 record over the last month. Only one loss was against a player ranked outside the top 35, which shows that Mladenovic is a tough out. Her performance last week in Linz was impressive, as she reached the quarterfinals while taking out Donna Vekic in three sets. Mladenovic is just 4-5 at this tournament in her career, but I think she can pull this one out.
Mladenovic will go up against Yulia Putintseva, the WTA world number 34. Putintseva hasn’t been great against tough competition on the hard courts, as she has just won win against a top-65 opponent since April. Her serving performance last week was poor, as she faced 22 break points while winning just 58% of first serve points. Kristina has the 2-1 edge in this matchup on hard courts, and I expect a third win today given their current forms.
Best of luck!