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French Open Round 2 Betting Preview, WTA and ATP | Model Predictions, Picks and Tennis Bets (FREE)




Tennis DFS Picks and projections for DraftKings lineups for Charleston, Italy, Bogota, and Spain | 4/9

The cold and wet conditions in Paris over the last few days caused a few delays and seemed to hurt some players and help others (looking at you, Marketa Vondrousova and Iga Swiatek, respectively). In summary, we saw two top-10 men’s seeds lose in Gael Monfils and Daniil Medvedev and no top-10 women’s seeds lose. For Monfils, he ran into the buzzsaw known as Alexander Bublik, one of the most unorthodox and weirdly talented players on tour. His problem has always been being able to put consistent sets and matches together. Medvedev’s struggles on clay are well documented, and he added to them with a poor match against Marton Fucsovics that included a spectacular tantrum and meltdown and finished in four sets.

As far as how the outrights I laid out in my preview article fared, both Borna Coric and Madison Keys lost in the first round. Coric’s loss to Norbert Gombos was fairly surprising, especially considering recent form. However, he only managed to win 22% of Gombos’ first serve points and finished 2-for-10 on break points. Keys looked pretty listless against a very solid Saisai Zhang, which is always a concern with Keys. Zhang isn’t a player who will beat herself very often, and the match was always going to fall on Keys’ racket. Sometime it’s better to wait on Keys to see if she looks ready to play in these tournaments and bet on her outright later, but usually by then all the value has dried up.

Round 2 Preview

Stanislas Wawrinka – Dominik Koepfer: Wawrinka crushed Andy Murray in a much-publicized first-round matchup. I can’t imagine the weather was helpful at all, especially for Murray, who used to be one of the best movers on tour but in the frigid temperatures looked like he could barely move at all on his reconstructed hip. In the second round, Wawrinka faces Koepfer, a career “AAAA” player on the tour. Since the restart, the 26-year-old has seen his best career finish in any ATP event with a close loss to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals in Rome. That Rome run also included very good wins against Gilles Simon, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur and Monfils.

Elena Rybakina – Fiona Ferro: After winning in the first tournament of the restart in Palermo, Ferro took a month off, citing hip problems. It didn’t look like she was bothered too much by the injury in her first-round matchup against Heather Watson, as she won easily in two sets. Ferro generated 10 break chances compared to Watson’s four. That match could easily have been worse than the 7-6, 6-4 scoreline, as Ferro was only able to convert three of those break point opportunities. I was slightly worried about Rybakina’s ability to bounce back from her close loss in the final to Elina Svitolina at Strasbourg, but she didn’t look any worse for wear in her dominating victory over Sorana Cirstea. The line is currently at Rybakina -270, but I have to admit that feels a little high. While she struggles on faster surfaces, the 23-year-old Ferro is an excellent clay court player and should represent a stout challenge for Rybakina. 

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Petra Martic – Veronika Kudermetova: Despite both of these players not having much WTA Premier/Grand Slam success, this second-round match between Martic and Kudermetova could be a banger. Since recovering from her back problems in the mid-2010s, Martic has risen back up to the ranks and stuck around the mid-teens this season. She has a complete arsenal of shots that does well on any court, but her reputation is that of a clay court player. Her opponent, Kudermetova, is a very interesting young player that has already bagged some big-time wins in her career. She was the reason Karolina Pliskova lost early in Cincinnati with an easy 7-5, 6-4 win and a 1.28 dominance ratio. She’s also beaten Svitolina, Dayana Yastremska (twice), Caroline Wozniacki, Maria Sakkari and Garbine Muguruza. If Martic doesn’t bring her best level of tennis, she could be in a lot of trouble despite being a -270 favorite.

Jelena Ostapenko – Karolina Pliskova: Members of the Awesemo premium Slack know that I am a big fan of Ostapenko. She broke onto the scene in this tournament in 2017, winning the title outright at a 100-1 pre-tournament price. She has struggled to back that tournament win up since then, being unable to recreate the level of consistency in her game that she displayed over those three weeks in 2017. Like the Joey Gallo of tennis, she is a true “three outcomes” (really two in tennis) player in that she displays absolutely no fear of trying the most audacious shots. Combined with the fact that she’s one of the most powerful hitters on tour, she is very tough to beat when she’s hitting lines with the ball. In that 2017 final, she routinely blew Simona Halep, one of the best movers on the women’s tour of all time, off the court in points. This match between her and Pliskova, one of the most powerful hitters on tour in her own right, could feature some of the best hitting of the entire tournament.

Round 2 Plays

Jelena Ostapenko +150: I backed Ostapenko at this number. Pliskova made the final in Rome and had to quit against Halep due to injury. I’m not fully convinced Pliskova is entirely healthy, and even if she is, in my opinion this match will fall on Ostapenko’s racket.

Barbora Krejcikova +117: Krejcikova generated 14 break chances and won 55% of points against Nina Stojanovic in the first round. I’m pretty impressed by her form since the restart, with nice wins over Kudermetova and Patricia Tig and a very close loss to Halep in Rome. On the other hand, Strycova looked pretty uninspired in her win over Varvara Lepchenko. If Krejcikova loses this match, it will be due to her second serve, which is an abject disaster. 

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Katerina Siniakova +133: This is another bet on form since the restart. Siniakova looked very comfortable on this surface in Strasbourg. In their careers, Siniakova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have almost identical hold/break numbers. I have this match a -110 either way. 

Thiem/Sock Over 30.5 games: Once upon a time (November 2017, technically), the hot-headed Jack Sock was ranked in the top 10 after winning the Paris Masters. Since then he has struggled with his game and with injuries, and his ranking has plummeted. The long COVID break may have been a huge boon for him, as it provided the longest non-injury-caused layoff of his career and possibly helped him get his mind and body right. I liked what I saw from him in New York and in the first round against fellow American Reilly Opelka. I don’t think there’s a chance he actually will win this match versus Dominic Thiem in this tournament, but historically Sock has played very well on clay. He’s one of the few people who can even claim a set off of Rafael Nadal at the French Open (2015 Round of 16). This feels like a four-set and over-30-game match.

Eugenie Bouchard -3 games: The namesake of the model that creates the tennis projections for Awesemo, we’ve seen a renaissance from Bouchard post-COVID break. Daria Gavrilova took advantage of a ridiculous 38 unforced errors by Yastremska in a two-set sweep in her first match since last year’s U.S. Open. I do not think she’ll find it so easy against an in-form (which feels ridiculous to say, but here we are) Bouchard.

Parlay Ideas

If you’re looking to build a favorites parlay, these are the ones I think represent the best value of price vs. probability of winning: Coco Gauff, Elise Mertens, Ons Jabeur, Patricia Tig, Andrey Rublev, Rafael Nadal (ridiculous price, but he won’t lose unless he gets hurt), Iga Swiatek.

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Blaine Jungwirth contributes expert tennis and data analysis to Blaine's work in quantifying fantasy production in tennis is amongst the tops in the industry and his tennis projections are a must-have for any fan of the emerging field of tennis DFS. You can contact Blaine by emailing [email protected].

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