The new surfaces were a big question coming into the U.S. Open, as they had played softer than others in the past, and that may still be the case. That will be something to consider on DraftKings, as aces upside may be limited. Once again, there are large prize pools on both sites, and with the help of the Awesemo expert tennis DFS projections, let’s get into the best tennis DFS picks for Tuesday’s fantasy lineups.
Today’s Best U.S. Open Tennis DFS Picks | Aug. 31
To help make one of the many difficult decisions, I will be using Awesemo’s industry-leading tennis DFS projections, which also include regressed match data and outcome probabilities.
Steve Johnson ($8,500/$18)
Opponent: Maximillian Marterer
Odds: -225 (SugarHouse)
There are plenty of nice plays at the top of the player pool, as top seeds draw favorable matchups early on in events. Dropping down to the mid-tier with Steve Johnson on big slates is an easy way to differentiate. Johnson had been occupied over the last season, but he has regained some form, with seven wins in 15 matches on hardcourts in 2021. Johnson is not a big server but has ace percentage of 11.4% on hardcourts over the same timeframe.
Maximillian Marterer won his first three here against very soft competition. Johnson will be a large step up for Marterer, and Johnson should move on to Round 2.
Karolina Pliskova ($9,200/$24)
Opponent: Caty McNally
Odds: -1000 (SugarHouse)
There are misprices that occur in tennis DFS, with betting markets focusing on long-term history. At $9,200, Karolina Pliskova is priced correctly on FanDuel, but on DraftKings she is far below her market price To take it a step further, she comes in with an 89.8% win probability per the Elo Ratings. Caty McNally has been a losing player on hardcourts over the last two seasons and continues to struggle with the speed. As for Pliskova, she has looked very strong on hardcourts, with a finals appearance in Montreal and semifinals appearance in Cincinnati last week.
With this many matches, the mid-tier is loaded with plenty of talent by default. Pliskova falling in this range makes her the expected value No. 1 on the slate, per Awesemo’s projections. If she keeps her double faults in check, she will likely be an optimal play with her sweep and win upside.
Jack Sock, Yannick Hanfmann, Pablo Cuevas, Laslo Djere
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