We are now at Day 4 of this week’s Tennis DFS slates. We’re already in the quarterfinals for the ATP Tour in Bulgaria and the Round of 16 in Austria for the WTA. Every day has seemingly been a rinse and repeat with upsets all over the place, but thankfully not too many retirements or withdrawals. DraftKings is running its typical GPPs for this nine-match slate, with the biggest top prize being $10,000. With a smaller slate, I’ll change the format up a bit and focus more on leverage than just solid tennis DFS picks. Let’s get to it!
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Tennis DFS Picks | DraftKings | 11/12/20
Favorite: Adrian Mannarino ($8800)
Opponent: Radu Albot
Adrian Mannarino has been a favorite play of mine for nearly a month, so why stop now? He’s 6-1 in his last seven appearances on tennis DFS slates, while never being priced above $9,500 and never scoring less than 65 DraftKings points. His price on this slate feels far too low considering the odds and the fact he caught a huge break with Radu Albot upsetting Denis Shapovalov in the previous round. Since getting back into the i-hard swing, the Frenchman has reached two quarters and a final in Nur-Sultan.
Both players share a similar style, but Mannarino towers over Albot in nearly all statistical categories, including a dominance ratio* (percentage of return games won divided by service games lost) 25% higher and a return-of-serve rating** 32 points higher. Throw all that together with Albot’s poor 4-8 record against lefties and you get a great play for all formats.
Leverage Play: John Millman ($6800)
Opponent: Vasek Pospisil
I’m not quite sure how the tennis DFS community will see this compared to the betting public, but if the odds hold true I like John Millman here quite a bit. The Australian definitely got a tough part of the draw in Sofia but handled Gilles Simon (surprise) even though it went three sets last round. This solidifies, for me anyways, the fact that Millman has turned his game around from a horrid run now with a title in Kazakhstan and some quality wins to follow.
Vasek Pospisil is usually a popular play because of his strong service game (10 aces per match). Millman’s superior service game (141 rating) should help mitigate much of the Canadian’s advantage, and give him a great shot to win. Underdogs are always tough to gauge with ownership, but I think we can safely get over without getting crazy.
Fade: Oceane Dodin ($10,000)
Opponent: Sorana-Mihaela Cirstea
I’m not sure you could pay me $10,000 in real dollars to roster Oceane Dodin here, and I’m definitely not rich enough to be saying that … so that should resinate. Dodin does get a nice matchup here with Sorana Cirstea, but with just two scores over 70 points all year, the upside just isn’t there to warrant a tennis DFS pick. In her last match, we expected her to roll Jill Teichmann with her recent form and she escaped in three sets with a win and just under 55 DraftKings points.
Cirstea caught a break in her first match with Julia Grabher retiring, so her form could be brought into question. I still don’t think Dodin will outscore five other winners on this slate, which is what you’ll need to take down a nice GPP. The price is just too restrictive — plain and simple.
Other Favorites: Elise Mertens ($9200), Nadia Podoroska ($7000), Jannik Sinner ($7700)
More Leverage: Camila Giorgi ($8000), Salvatore Caruso ($5800), Stefanie Voegele (yikes)
* percentage of return points won / percentage of service points lost
** 1st serve return games won% + 2nd serve return % + break points conv % + return games won %
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