It’s day 4 of this week’s tennis DFS tournaments and DraftKings has come through with a big $30,000 prize pool with $5,000 to first. This week is set in Acapulco, Mexico with an ATP500 tournament, which happens to be a favorite location for many players. Enjoy the tournament with these tennis DFS picks, including Rafael Nadal and Kyle Edmund.
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Recap of Yesterday’s Tennis DFS Picks
We had a perfect 5-for-5 yesterday. John Isner and Soon-woo Kwon both rolled in straight sets. Isner finished with 28 aces and Kwon came through with a second-set bagel. Both exceeded 75 points. Xiyu Wang made life a little difficult on us by losing a second-set tiebreak, but came out in the third set guns blazing, winning 6-1. Kyle Edmund defeated the 21% Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets as well. The moneymaker tonight was, of course, Tommy Paul. The American handled the mentally weak Alexander Zverev in straight sets at just 4% on DraftKings. Let’s get onto some picks for the quarterfinals here in Acapulco.
Acapulco Picks: 8-3
Rafael Nadal ($10,600)
Opponent: Soon-woo Kwon
Odds to win: -1650
These conditions here in Acapulco are nearly perfect for Rafael Nadal and he shouldn’t have much trouble breezing through this tournament to inevitably raise the trophy. Soon-woo Kwon put in an impressive performance over Dusan Lajovic yesterday, winning 7-6, 6-0, but that was more on Lajovic’s lack of focus than it was on Kwon’s skill. Unfortunately, Soon-woo’s time in Mexico is up. This slate is just nine matches with the second-largest favorite being -300. Lineups without Nadal will be fighting an uphill battle to stay in the mix.
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Tamara Zidansek ($9,200)
Opponent: Renata Zarazua
Odds to win: -255
I must start with Renata Zarazua, who’s putting in an inspiring performance this year in Acapulco. She’s the only Mexican player in the draw from the men or the women. Faced with adversity, she battled through a tough second set against Katie Volynets and ended up winning 6-0 in the third. However, Volynets is just an 18-year-old American who was clearly flustered by the magnitude of the moment yesterday after serving for the set and getting broken. The Mexican crowd is strongly in Zarazua’s favor.
Tamara Zidansek should be able to cope with the conditions and not let the momentum swing too far to Zarazua. She’s far more experienced and far too talented, simply at a higher level. If Zarazua steals a set, things could get interesting, but the most likely outcome is a straight-set win for the Slovenian world No. 74.
Kyle Edmund ($8,100)
Opponent: Taylor Fritz
Odds to win: -145
Playing some very respectable tennis at the moment, American Taylor Fritz has gone through both matches here at Acapulco fairly easily. He’s generated 30 break opportunities through five sets. His first-round match against John Millman was a hard-fought battle through two sets before Fritz took the third comfortably. His strong serve and blistering rally play were too good for the Aussie. Last night, he handled Ugo Humbert with ease, but Humbert picked up an injury and couldn’t play anywhere near his best. This will be Fritz’s first true test.
Kyle Edmund is rolling with seven straight wins, topping off against Canadian superstar Felix Auger-Aliassime last night. Fritz plays with a similar style to players Edmund has rolled over lately, and it’s no fluke. His movement is world class, and uses his opponent’s pace to generate pace of his own. The Brit should come out on top in what may be a hard-fought battle.
Highly Owned Fade: John Isner ($8,300)
Opponent: Tommy Paul
Odds to win: -130
With only nine matches on the slate, we must be different somewhere. John Isner‘s style makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to put up big scores with how few times he’s broken, but on such a small slate, those fading Isner simply need him to lose the match. Vegas implies Isner with about a 57% chance of winning the match. If he wins, he’ll probably be in the optimal lineup. But if he loses, at around 60% ownership, you’re looking at much of the field wiped out off the bat. When a player’s win probability is lower than his ownership, it’s smart to fade. This is less about Tommy Paul and more about playing the percentages.
Potential Upset: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ($5,600)
Opponent: Cristian Garin
Odds to win: +265
Cristian Garin is riding a nine-match win streak, all coming on clay. He has won two titles straight. It has surely been an emotional few weeks for the Chilean, and now he plans to play at his home tournament in Santiago. This is a tough spot in my eyes. He was forced to withdraw from Buenos Aires in between Cordoba and Rio, so there’s definitely something there that’s more than just fatigue. Either way, I highly doubt he pulls out of his home tournament.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina relies heavily on his movement. He’ll make Garin work, which Garin will be reluctant to do much of. Obviously, it’s bold predicting a Chilean who’s playing the tennis of his life to lose at home, but I feel Fokina is up to the task. At least, he surely has a better chance of winning the match than what Vegas is implying at 27% to win.
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