We’ve seen some fun matches thus far this week. Gregoire Barrere’s upset of Grigor Dimitrov provided some quality tennis in what ended up being an extremely tight match. We’ve also seen 33-year-old Richard Gasquet and 38-year-old Feliciano Lopez win somewhat convincingly to set up a match between the two veterans. For today, we have a 14-game tennis DFS slate that doesn’t provide much in the way of sure favorites — Diego Schwartzman is the largest favorite at -385 — so let’s dig in and see if we can pick some winners.
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Emil Ruusuvuori (DraftKings $8,900; FanDuel N/A)
I typically like to fade players coming off of massive upsets and that’s what I plan to do with Norbert Gombos. He scored by far the biggest win in his career in upsetting Pablo Carreno Busta, but I think that win says more about Carreno Busta’s current form than it does about Gombos’. Carreno Busta managed to win only 28% of his second serve points, gave up an inexplicable nine break chances to Gombos (a terrible stat for a big favorite on indoor hard courts; for reference, Nadal generated only 10 break chances against Carreno Busta in the Australian Open) and only generated five break chances himself.
For tennis DFS, I’ll back the young Finnish player, Emil Ruusuvuori, even though he didn’t look that dominant himself against Dennis Novak.
Egor Gerasimov (DraftKings $8,700; FanDuel N/A)
With his big serve and volley game, Egor Gerasimov normally does most of his work in indoor tourneys. Despite that, his serve appears to be firing outdoors in Pune, India. In a dominant first-round win against Paolo Lorenzi, Gerasimov recorded an 18.5 ace percentage. Now he faces the qualifier Nikola Milejovic, who has looked fairly impressive himself, not losing a set between two qualifying rounds and the first round of the main draw. However, Gerasimov represents a big step up for him — Milejovic has never beaten a player ranked in the top 100 — and I’m expecting Gerasimov’s service game to win out.
Mikael Ymer (DraftKings $7,100; FanDuel N/A)
Mikael Ymer has been the forgotten prospect of this age-19-to-23 group emerging in men’s tennis. He appears to be rapidly improving, though, taking Karen Khachanov to five sets in the second round of the Australian Open, beating Frances Tiafoe in Auckland and then Jannik Sinner in the first round of this tournament. I think he should play well here against Filip Krajinovic, who’s had a solid yet unremarkable career thus far. Of the sub-$7,500 value tennis DFS plays, I think he’s most likely to win. My model also likes Alexander Bublik, but he’s much more unlikely to upset David Goffin.
Best of luck!