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PlayLine NFL Projections: Week 10

Josh Engleman

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NFL betting player props tool covers the best player props and bets for DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks

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Players: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Eli Manning and Nick Mullens

Stats: Passing yards

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Today, we’ll be projecting the expected yards for the four quarterbacks, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Eli Manning and Nick Mullens, in the “Awesemo.com Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $5,000GTD –  Pistol Whip ($1,500 to 1st!)“ PlayLine contest.

Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the chart below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!

You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.

Dak Prescott

Average yards per game: 207.5

Standard deviation: 44 yards

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of an ugly loss at home against the Tennessee Titans, and now they’ll have to try and straighten things out on the road against Philadelphia. Prescott wasn’t terrible in last week’s loss, throwing for 243 yards, but the offense as a whole continues to struggle. The addition of Amari Cooper didn’t seem to move the needle much for them, but maybe another week of practice could help the cause.

The Eagles are one of the best in the NFL at stopping the run, ranking 2nd in opponents’ rushing yards per game (83.8). That could force the Cowboys to attack through the air instead, an area where the Eagles are a little more vulnerable, ranking 25th in opponents’ passing yards per game (269.1). We already know that Prescott isn’t a high-yardage QB, and that’s not going to change, but he’s thrown for over 240 yards in two consecutive games and has a great opportunity to do it again this week.

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Philadelphia are -7.0 favorites and the line is set at 43.0. It’s going to be tough sledding for the Cowboys, but that doesn’t mean Prescott won’t have opportunities to continue his run of semi-productive games. Being on the road could have an impact, but we’re going to predict between 220-260 yards.

 

Carson Wentz

Average yards per game: 298

Standard deviation: 32 yards

The Eagles have been fairly inconsistent so far this season, but they’re coming off of a bye week and have a reeling Cowboys team coming to town, so they have an opportunity to jump over the .500 mark. Carson Wentz is putting together a solid season, averaging a touch under 300 yards per game, and the fact that his standard deviation comes in at 32 yards means he’s easier to predict than most QB’s.

Wentz will have home field advantage on his side this week, but the Cowboys pack-a-punch defensively and could be a challenge for him to figure out. Dallas rank 4th in opponents’ total yards per game (317.0) and 5th in opponents’ passing yards per game (217.1), so it’s safe to say Wentz may experience some turbulence. The Eagles will have to get create on offense, and possibly turn to their running game a little more frequently than usual, but either way it’s a game they should win.

We’re expecting Wentz to take a slight hit in passing yards but nothing too dramatic. He should come in between 250-290 yards when it’s all said and done.

 

Eli Manning

Average yards per game: 297.1

Standard deviation: 52 yards

Eli Manning’s future with the Giants is shaky to say the least, with the team stumbling into a Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. New York are 1-7 heading into Monday night’s game, and Manning will remain the starter for now despite the underwhelming performance by the team this season.

The Giants haven’t actually been terrible when it comes to passing yards per game, as they currently rank ninth (275.4), but it’s their running game that has probably been the most underwhelming aspect of it all (77.9 rushing yards per game). However, rushing yards are irrelevant in regards to the discussion here.

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The 49ers have played above average defense this season, ranking 14th in opponents’ total yards per game (351.7) and 17th in opponents’ passing yards per game (248.9), so Manning could experience some resistance there. The game is also in San Francisco, which will make life even tougher for Manning and the offense. The 49ers are currently -3.0 favorites to win the game, and the line is set at 44.0. It probably won’t be a high scoring affair given where the two teams are currently in the standings, so it’s possible Manning sees a slight drop in production.

He’s totaled at least 300 passing yards in three of his last four games and might be able to scrape over that mark again. He should settle between 280-310 yards.

 

Nick Mullens

Average yards per game: 262 (one career start)

Standard deviation: 0

Mullens Mania has officially taken off and it’s only just getting started, as Nick Mullens has been confirmed as the starter for Monday night’s game against the New York Giants. Mullens got the start against the Oakland Raiders last week, replacing the injured CJ Beathard, and he was superb. He finished the game 16-of-22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns, a tremendous performance for a young QB making his first career start.

The 49ers, despite last week’s win, still possess a record of just 2-7, but they’ll have momentum on their side and will be looking to hand the reeling Giants their sixth straight loss. New York ranks 21st in opponents’ total yards per game (366.4) and 16th in opponents’ passing yards per game (244.0), so they’re not terrible but they’re not great either. Mullens came into last Thursday’s game as an unknown, but with one game under his belt, teams will now be able to gameplan accordingly and make adjustments when required.

The Giants have managed to hold their last two opponents to under 25 points and are also coming off of a bye week, so they’ll be fresh and motivated to take it to the rookie QB. We’ll know more about Mullens after Monday night’s game. Another solid outing could help him lock up the starting spot for the remainder of the season, so it’s on him to come out and earn it. It’s probably safe to say he won’t have a massive game, but he will turn in another respectable performance. We’re predicting between 230-260 yards.

Josh is Contributor for Awesemo.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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