Thursday, Aug. 27, we have an early lock six-game main slate beginning 6:37 p.m. EST on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Greetings, Gamers! Depending on your site of choice you have a mix of early game action. Tonight everything comes together for an early 6:37 p.m. EST lock with a six-game main slate.
Similar to last year, I will be providing a review of one stack for each of the day’s slates. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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Early-Slate MLB DFS Picks
San Diego Padres vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi – 5.0 implied runs
Depending on your site of choice, you may get an early two-game slate. On DraftKings this involves both of the lead games for today’s seven-inning doubleheaders. Kikuchi is someone we can definitely target with the Padres. In an interesting twist, this season the former Japan League star is throwing his fastball a full 2 mph faster than last year. Additionally, he has added a cut fastball that he was not utilizing at all last season. This has dramatically dropped his hard hit rate from 37.5% to 32.2%, and he has yet to cede a home run.
Finally we have seen his walk rate nearly double to 11.9% and his strikeout rate increase from 16.1% to 25.0%. However, despite limiting the power, he has allowed 5, 4, 0 (Oakland) and 5 runs over his four starts.
Despite losing Tommy Pham, San Diego has been in a full on power surge over the last two weeks. On the short slate we will not be alone in our desire to target them. Look to Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Wil Myers as the power trio to target. For differentiation go with Eric Hosmer and Trent Grisham, who are just fine in lefty/lefty matchups.
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Main-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Washington Nationals vs. RHP Spencer Howard – 5.2 implied runs
We have all six of our games going off between 6:37 p.m. EST and 7:10 p.m. EST tonight. Howard will be making his fourth start of the season. He left his last start with a blister on his middle finger but is said to be ready for tonight. In his first three starts, he has gone 67, 69 and 81 pitches, but he has closed out the fourth frame only once. During his three MiLB seasons he compiled an eye-popping 12.0 K/9 rate. Over his two seasons at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo in the Big West Conference, he averaged 9.8 K/9 over 124.1 innings. That has translated so far to The Show with 11 punchouts in 11.2 innings. Unfortunately he has also allowed four home runs and five walks.
For the Nationals, everything starts with Juan Soto, who has a .307 ISO in his last 533 lefty/righty matchups. We should see Kurt Suzuki behind the dish for this “Scherzday” start, and he has an underrated bat. Youngster Luis Garcia has been hanging tough at age 20, becoming the first player born in the 2000s to hit a home run. Last night he also got his first stolen base.
Speaking of stolen bases, it looks like Trea Turner is finally ready to run, and he also swiped one last night. As a bonus he has been flashing power with six home runs. Over his career, he has been markedly better from a power perspective against same-handed pitchers. The Phillies bullpen has been meh and they will likely be called upon for five or so innings. We can round out our full stacks with Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera and Howie Kendrick. Finally, Eric Thames has been slumping, but he is always a home run threat against opposite-handed hurlers.
Late-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Minnesota Twins at LHP Matthew Boyd – 5.3 implied runs
Hat tip to southpaw Matthew Boyd, who has tied Dylan Bundy with 74 home runs allowed since the beginning of the 2018 season. In three of his last four starts, Boyd has allowed multiple home runs. Of his eight this year, seven have gone to righties. On that note, Nelson Cruz has a .476 ISO in his last 176 plate appearances against southpaws. Miguel Sano is not too far behind with a .338 ISO over 148 such matchups. Switch-hitters Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez should also have a prominent role tonight in our lineups. Finally for a discount dandy, Ildemaro Vargas should be in the lineup with both Mitch Garver and Byron Buxton on the injured list.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
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