Perhaps the most dynamic receiver in the NFL, Tyreek Hill continues to defy the odds in Kansas City. With well-documented efficiency and opportunity in the best offense in football with the Chiefs, there are questions that are surrounding Hill. The biggest questions being, where should a polarizing player like Hill fall in the fantasy football rankings, and just how high should Hill come off the board in fantasy football drafts this year?
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill’s Production Profile
Hill has never recorded fewer than 593 yards in any season. This occurred during his rookie campaign when Hill continued to adapt to the position after playing very little college football. Hill also found a knack for special teams that season, with 976 return yards and five special teams touchdowns.
After his flashes of brilliance, Hill moved into a full-time receiving role in his second year. In 2017 Hill notched his first 1,000-yard season while averaging 78.9 yards receiving per game. He followed this up with a career-best year in 2018, recording 87 catches for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns.
While injury limited Hill to just 12 games in 2019, he reemerged in 2020 with a vengeance. He caught 87 balls for 1,276 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns on 135 targets. In Kansas City’s final 10 games Hill averaged 11.2 targets per game. Previously living through efficiency, Hill’s increased volume allowed him to eclipse 100 yards receiving five times in that span.
Opportunity & Efficiency
Hill’s 135 targets equated to a 23.2% target share, though Travis Kelce led the team in targets at 146. However, Hill’s 112 targets in the final 10 games only fell five behind Kelce’s 117. Hill also dominated the Chief’s downfield opportunities with a 35.9% air yards share. This mark ranked ninth among receivers. Hill also saw 16 red zone targets, giving him a 23.2% red zone target share.
From an efficiency perspective, Hill continues to dominate. He participated in 94.2% of Kansas City’s routes last year while playing 58.6% of his snaps in the slot. He recorded 617 yards after catch despite a 12.9 average depth of target. His 2.16 yards per route run ranked 12th among receivers with at least 50 targets last season.
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2021 Fantasy Football Expectations
The Chiefs have undergone a few changes. Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are still there, but Kansas City lost Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Kelechi Osemele, Stefen Wisniewski, Daniel Kilgore and Austin Reiter along the offensive line. The Chiefs traded a first-round pick for Orlando Brown to start opposite Mike Remmers. They also signed Joe Thuney and Austin Blythe to play left guard and center. With Laurent Duvernay-Tardif also coming back after opting out of 2020, this unit looks solid. Throw in rotational pieces Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey and Lucas Niang, and this group has solid depth as well.
Among skill position players, the Chiefs also let Sammy Watkins walk in free agency. He never had more than 673 yards receiving for Kansas City. With the Chiefs only adding Cornell Powell on Day 3 of the draft, Kelce and Hill look locked into a 20%-plus target share.
As for the offense as a whole, Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid remain as the principal architects. Last year Kansas City passed 62.6% of the time (fifth) while running 65.9 plays per game (eighth). They scored 28.5 points per game (sixth), averaging 301.9 yards passing per game (first).
Hill continues to provide fantasy league-winning upside at a deep position. Little separates the early receivers, but Hill’s presence in the Chiefs’ offense offers a rare blend of security and upside. The Chiefs have a win total of 12.5 games and the best odds to win the AFC West. In best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy, Hill comes off the board just behind Kelce and first among receivers. While running backs continue to dominate the first round, Hill is a first-round receiver worth targeting.
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