KBO DFS: Spotlight Hitters DraftKings, FanDuel

Another ugly night for the weather in South Korea resulted in a scratched game for KBO DFS players last night before lock. The Wiz and Lions will play two today to make up the postponed game, but more rain in the forecast is threatening their ability to get both games in. There are three games with weather concerns on the slate tonight, so we’ll have to be on the ball between lock and game-time for the late games.

The games that did play last night delivered a relatively flat slate on the offensive side of the plate for a change. The highest team score was the 6 runs scored by the Tigers, and no game went over 10 runs combined. KBO DFS players were treated to another dynamite performance from future MLB pitcher Chang-mo Koo, and the Doosan Bears’ reliever Won-joon Choi stymied the Hanwha Eagles, striking out seven over five innings and dealing the Eagles their record-tying 18^th straight loss.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

Can the Eagles make it 19-straight and a new record tonight? The original 1985 record-setting team was actually sold and re-named at the end of their 18-game streak, and after several different incarnations are now known as the Kiwoom Heroes. The Eagles may seriously want to consider disbanding entirely.

Two big game totals are dominating the board tonight, giving us another top-heavy slate with a ton of question marks. The LG Twins lost the ridiculously popular slugger Bob Ramos to the injured list with an aching back. ESPN’s KBO Insider, Daniel Kim, reported that he shares a doctor with the Twins team, and has it on good authority that Ramos will be back in the minimum amount of time, so we should see him return late next week. For now you’ll all have to find a different first baseman to play for a change.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

With lock still hours away (1:00 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

KT Wiz @ Samsung Lions –9.5 run total (5.28/4.43) – Suggested Stack: Wiz 4-5-6

The rain out from last night gets made up as the early game and the sites are once again using this as a reason to lock the slate at 1:00 A.M. EST when the other games don’t start until 4:00. With bad weather in the forecast around game-time, and unpredictable nights coming for the later games as well, this is going to cause KBO DFS players fits.

The run total comes down from last night, with Odrisamer Despaigne still taking the hill for the Wiz but David Buchanan sliding in to pitch for the Lions. Buchanan has been mostly solid on the surface but digging in there could be some opportunity against him here. His 4.88 FIP is more than a run higher than his earned run average and he’s only striking out 15% of hitters, ranking him 30^th in the KBO in total strikeouts.

The top stack tool has the Wiz and Heroes basically tied in third and ownership looks playable, making this an interesting spot if the games happens. Mel Rojas Jr. ($16/$5,700) was my home run pick from this team and looks very strong in Awesemo’s projections. Getting to a stack with the hitters above him in the lineup is a straightforward approach to this team that is in play, building with Kyung-soo Park ($8/$3,600) and Yong-ho Jo ($8/$2,900) is helpful for the savings and quality.

Not a lot changes about the read on the Lions from last night. We were concerned about the status of Tyler Saladino ($8/$4,200) who had been lifted from Thursday’s game. Saladino was not in the Friday lineup that the Lions posted prior to the game being called off, so it will be important to watch out for his status again tonight, throwing yet another monkey wrench into a challenging slate. Hak-ju Lee ($7/$3,600) is still a workable building block, and Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4,800) was my home run choice here, but the Lions wouldn’t be my first option tonight from the bottom of the stack rankings.

Kia Tigers @ SK Wyverns – 9.5 run total (4.96/4.74) – Suggested Stack: Tigers 1-3-4-5-6

The Tigers posted the biggest game of the night with in a 6-3 victory that was supported by home runs from Seon-woo Oh and Ji-wan Na. The Wyverns wasted what was an otherwise high-end start from sneaky submariner SK starter Jong-hoon Park, who struck out eight over his six-inning performance. Tonight’s game has a quietly good pitching match-up on paper and both teams are pulling implied totals under five runs, making them questionable looking plays in the stack tool.

The Tigers are facing Seung-won Moon, a veteran starter who has found his strikeout ability so far this season. Moon has had quality KBO years in his career, but his 23.2% strikeout rate is nothing like his history. His 3.46 FIP to a 4.68 ERA tells us he hasn’t had much benefit from defense and luck so far this year either. The Tigers bats are high-end, particularly through the middle. Slugger Ji-wan Na ($9/$3,600) is still too cheap on both sites and my home run model and Awesemo’s projections like him here again tonight. Leadoff hitter Ho-ryeong Kim ($10/$3,500) is a quality table-setter up top, and Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,500) is a capable bookend for the big bats in the middle of this stack.

The Wyverns draw Ki-young Im, who is having a career year early in 2020. The pitcher has been dealing over his last four starts but doesn’t show a ton of strikeout ability and does allow some contact. He’s also demonstrated a concerning inability to get deep into games, cracking 90 pitches in the fifth and sixth innings of his last three starts. I won’t be playing much of Im as a pitcher, but I’m not sure I want to draw against him with Wyverns bats here either. They rank in the bottom portion of the stack tool tonight and there is no real leverage to speak of. If you’ve got a Berkowitz kind of relationship with your dog and he told you to play Wyverns today, you could do worse than jamming in Ji-hoon Choi ($5/$2,600) who is off to a nice start to his KBO career with a .375/.417/.500 slash line over his first 16 games. The projected two-hitter sits in front of boppers Jeong Choi ($14/$4,600) and Jamie Romak ($11/$5,000) in the lineup here, making a tidy natural three-man stack.

Lotte Giants @ LG Twins – 9.0 run total (4.17/5.03) – Suggested Stack: Giants 1-4

Last night’s affair saw a quality pitching duel between these two staffs. Starters Tyler Wilson and Dan Straily gamely matched one another for the first half of the game, with Straily pitching well into the eighth inning for the Giants. The game ultimately went to 10 innings, with the Twins walking it off on a single for a 3-2 win.

The Giants get another tough match-up tonight, with veteran starter Woo-chan Cha on the mound for the Twins. Cha’s current earned run average is probably a bit low, with his FIP two-thirds of a run higher, but he provides quality in the strikeout department for KBO DFS players. His 20% strikeout rate is right in line with his career numbers. The match-up has the Giants in the bottom half of the stack tool tonight, the best of the bad teams. There looks to be a little edge on FanDuel, so they could make an interesting play as a secondary stack over on the blue site tonight. With all of the hitters under 10% ownership on FanDuel, and not pulling very much more on DraftKings, you can combine whichever bats you like here. Jun-woo Jeon ($13/$4,000) is one of our favorite options in the home run model a lot of days, and he looks like a quality play here. Using Jeon along with Chi-hong An ($9/$2,800), Ah-seop Son ($13/$3,300) and Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,700) remains my preferred approach to this lineup when they aren’t overly popular. If you want to save money and get weird, Byung-hun Min ($9/$3,500) will be untouched hitting ninth on both sites.

The Twins lost the KBO’s biggest bat to injury, with Bob Ramos hitting the IL for about a week as of last night. This team has enough quality to cover his absence for the most part but dropping a bat like that from any lineup will have some repercussions in how teams pitch to the rest of the batting order. Hit master Y.T. Park ($10/$2,300) will move into the three-spot in the lineup with Eun-Sung Chae ($11/$3,300) sliding back to the cleanup spot, making them two quality components for run scoring and production tonight. The usual one and two hitters look good here as well, with Hyun-soo Kim ($11/$5,300) pulling a strong power number in my home run model.

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Doosan Bears @ Hanwha Eagles – 11.5 run total (7.30/4.51) – Suggested Stack: Bears pick ‘em

One more for the record book! This is easily the sports story I’m most excited about so far in 2020, with the Eagles chasing pathetic history. I really like their chances of breaking the futility record here, in fact I think they have a good shot to go well over 20 with this losing streak.

The Bears are number one with a bullet in the top stack tool on both sites tonight, carrying a massive implied total of well over 7 runs. With essentially double the probability of being the top stack as the second ranked team has, they will be extremely popular; team ownership is currently trending toward 30%. It’s going to be very difficult to get different with the Bears tonight. If he’s in the lineup again catcher Sang-ho Chung ($5/$2,400) is the only member of the Bears projected for under 20% ownership on DraftKings, where his 1.1% number is appealing when we’re required to roster a catcher on that site. On FanDuel we will have slightly more breathing room on players like Jae-ho Kim ($9/$2,600) higher up in this lineup. KBO DFS players know the real bats you want here are the super popular ones in the middle, however. Jae-il Oh, Jose Miguel Fernandez, and Jae-Hwan Kim all look fantastic in projections, but good luck with unique builds.

The Bears are sending the 4-1 Hui-Kwan Yu to the mound. Yu is a prototypical KBO pitcher, yielding a massive amount of contact and not striking out many hitters, yet making it work somehow. Against the Eagles lineup he shouldn’t have much difficulty, but if they’re going to string together some hits and manage to win a game, they could draw a worse match-up than this opportunity. Somehow this team is going over-owned on FanDuel, I expect entirely due to the pricing. I don’t like this lineup, even cheap. The options are limited, obvious and the same as last night here, Jared Hoying ($9/$4,900) and Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,200). Just so we feel like we accomplished something here, I’ll add that leadoff hitter Yong-kyu Lee ($8/$4,000) has the on-base skills and speed to be a quality table-setter who steals you a bag or two on any given night.

Did I mention that this game also has weather concerns? Ugh. Keep an eye on this one coming up to lock, making the right decisions on your late swaps is going to be big tonight.

Kiwoom Heroes @ NC Dinos – 11.0 run total (5.05/6.20) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 3-4-5-6-8

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we’ve got some rain coming at this game as well. One of the higher overall totals on the slate and two of the more popular lineups, this is going to cause some headaches for KBO DFS players tonight.

The high-end Heroes lineup gets the back end of the Dinos rotation here with Jae-hak Lee starting. Lee is 3-1 on the season and has pitched well, with his 4.29 FIP exposing the Dinos defense a bit when compared with his 5.08 earned run average. His weak 6.3% strikeout to walk number leaves a lot to be desired though, and there could be sneaky opportunity for the Heroes here. The top stack tool has them ranked third on the slate, but they aren’t getting an inappropriate amount of public attention, making them playable here. Ownership is down on Ha-seong Kim ($15/$5,800) who makes a good starting point for a straight-line build from two through six in this order. The positions occupied by the key bats in this lineup work extremely well when stacking with other teams, with options at both middle infield spots as well as catcher with Dong-won Park ($10/$4,700).

The total for the Dinos comes down by nearly a run and is still well over six. The odds-makers just love this squad to do damage every day of the week and they’re usually not wrong. The match-up against Hyun-hee Han tonight ranks somewhere in the middle of the spots we’ve seen for this team so far this season. Han is 2-2 on the year in six tries but has pitched well and to form. There is limited quality here, he’s not a big strikeout guy, but he appears to know how to work with what he has, posting a career FIP in the low fours. The Dinos rank second in the stack tool and won’t be outrageously popular on DraftKings. The real spot is on FanDuel, where the current ownership projection is falling short of the team’s quality, creating some opportunity for sharp KBO DFS players. On both sites Suk-min Park ($4,700), Jin-sung Kang ($4,100), and Aaron Altherr ($4,700) aren’t nearly as popular as they should be. The big bats in Eui-ji Yang and Sung-bum Na are both popular, but clicking them together with these three, or looking to options like Jin-hyuk No ($3,900) is a great approach to tonight’s slate, and a chance to play Dinos at something close to reasonable exposure. If this game plays at all that is. Stupid rain.