It’s Tuesday with just a handful of games left before the MLB Postseason, where several teams will be jockeying for position. The pitching on today’s 11-game MLB DFS slate features an interesting mix of talent, with top prices coming in for some of the best MLB DFS picks like San Diego’s Zach Davies, Houston’s Framber Valdez, and Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell. Â
While the talents mentioned above carry a bit more clarity behind their asking prices given their seasonal resumes, there are other odd options in the same tier who still make you ponder where their salary is being engineered (i.e. Dustin May over $9,000).
The following MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more free DraftKings and FanDuel MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
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Top MLB DFS Pitching Plays
Blake Snell – Rays at Mets – DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $9,200
Coming off an elbow injury in 2019 which required season-ending surgery, Snell has rebounded in a promising way since being eased back into a full workload as the 2020 season has progressed. Over his 10 starts this year, Snell has pitched an outstanding 30% strikeout rate, walking 8.3% of batters and touting a 10.96 K/9.
Despite the slow start to his season given the limited pitch count at the time, the Rays ace currently stands with a 1.15 WHIP, which accounts for the second best of his five-year pro career. He’s stranding batters who reach bases at an incredible rate as well, leaving behind a massive 87.9% of opposing batters who get aboard.
The downside to Snell is that the leash still appears to be intact with Rays manager Kevin Cash, as he’s held the stud pitcher to no more than 5 2/3 innings pitched all season. In what’s likely to be his final start of the shortened regular season, Snell may still very well be capped here.
Given his strikeout capabilities, he’s still quite capable of fantasy output worthy of investment. Facing a Mets team projected for six right-handed hitters, he’s striking them out 26.1% of the time, along with a 1.33 WHIP and 3.56 xFIP. The Mets, while 17th in swinging strike rate (11.2%), are third overall in ground ball rate (46.5%) and hitting just 31% hard contact (27th in MLB).
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B
Framber Valdez – Astros at Mariners – DraftKings $9,700, FanDuel $10,000
Although he may be priced up to his highest tag in 2020 thus far, Valdez is posting some convincing numbers this season and enters Tuesday’s main slate with one of the better opposing matchups. The third-year Astros lefty is accounting for his best career numbers to date with his 2020 resume, dealing a solid 26.1% strikeout rate, walking just 6.1% of opposing hitters, and donning a 9.61 K/9 and 3.82 ERA.
Valdez’s ability to prevent batters from getting aboard is well above league average and standing pat with a 1.16 WHIP and 3.01 FIP. He’s averaging 35.8 FanDuel points per game over his 10 games pitched (nine started), while going nearly seven innings per game.
The asking price for Valdez is clearly a reach at first glance, but taking into consideration the glaring holes in his matchup with the Mariners grants great leeway in the spend-up option. While Seattle’s currently just above league average in swinging strike rate (11.5%), the Mariners are striking out 24.5% of the time in general (10th in MLB), and squaring off against left-handed pitchers makes the reasoning all the bolder. Seattle has the third-highest strikeout rate against lefty pitchers (27%) as well as a blatant inability to manufacture offense with just a 74 wRC+ versus lefties (28th in MLB).
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
Seth Lugo – Mets vs. Rays – DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $7,000
In the case made for the other pitcher taking the mound at Citi Field besides Snell today, Lugo has a significantly reduced price tag by comparison to other pitchers in the same vicinity of Awesemo’s point projection. Facing an opponent in strikeout-laden Tampa Bay is another bonus, especially considering the skill set of Lugo.
The first thing that which must be noted from a fantasy standpoint: Lugo definitely needs to be granted a longer leash in terms of duration on the mound, as he’s gone no more than five innings in any start this season. But much like his Rays pitching opponent today, he has the potential for a massive number of strikeouts within that shortened workload duration.
Lugo is currently touting an insane 13.50 K/9, as he’s managed to strike out 33.3% of opposing hitters this season. Although his 1.50 WHIP is coming in worse than the league average 1.327, Seth Lugo has a compensatory 2.39 xFIP and is stranding 87.4% of hitters who do manage to get on base.
In addition to facing a Rays team that is second highest in strikeout rate (26.6%), Lugo is also the beneficiary of facing the fourth-highest strikeout-rated team against right-handed pitchers at 26%. With the strikeout upside considered here, Lugo is just too cheap.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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