NFL DFS Showdown Strategy Week 2: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

The second Sunday Night Football game of 2020 features two quarterbacks who can get it done in a myriad of ways with the Seattle Seahawks hosting the New England Patriots. The Seahawks are 4-point favorites, and the game has a total of 44.5. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.

NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Strategy, Optimal Lineup Construction | Seahawks vs. Patriots SNF

Showdown Captain

Cam Newton

Newton would be an unusually expensive Captain at $18,000, but he has immense upside, specifically as a rusher. He led the Patriots in all rushing categories with 15 carries for 75 yards and two scores. Over half of his carries went for at least five yards. Newton also saw five red zone carries, 10th in the NFL last week.

NFL DFS — *Cam Newton Week 1 Carry Chart, per NextGen Stats*

As a passer, Newton looked perfectly comfortable as well. He completed 15 of his 19 attempts and posted an 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt. Because of his rushing upside, Newton is one of the few quarterbacks who makes sense as a Captain in tournaments.

New England Receivers

With Newton throwing just 19 passes, there weren’t many looks for the New England receivers in Week 1. That should change this week as they travel to Seattle and are pegged as underdogs by four points at most books. An increase in passing volume could greatly illuminate the roles that New England’s top receivers have. Last week, Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry each saw a target share greater than 30%. Surprisingly, Edelman worked downfield the most and earned a 60.4% air yards share. That absurd number will come down but points to a bright future with Newton. He’s a great value, priced behind both Seattle receivers and Chris Carson.

Harry’s minuscule, 3.7 average depth of target gives him less upside on a per-target basis. Targets are the ultimate drive of fantasy points and he has them. Awesemo’s projected stats have him as seeing the second-most targets in the entire game. Playing him at Captain for $7,800 lets you jam in more studs and should be fairly unpopular.

Seattle Receivers

Seattle is running a similar, two-man receiving unit. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined to miss only one passing-down snap for Seattle in Week 1. David Moore played on just 57% of Seattle’s passing plays as the third receiver. Locket and Metcalf each saw eight targets but Metcalf led the team with 118 air yards. Our projections give Lockett a two-point edge over Metcalf for just $600 more at Captain.

Neither backfield is a massive priority on this slate so even if you get a receiver in at Captain, prioritize getting at least one more in at Flex. If they’re both from the same team, their quarterback should be in your lineup.

For the sole purpose of having a unique roster, Harry and Edelman could be played without Newton as they both have upside that could be achieved purely through receptions, which doesn’t score points for Newton. Seattle’s receivers and their deeper targets necessitate a stack with Russel Wilson.

Chris Carson

Carson was out-carried by Carlos Hyde 6-to-7. It has to be noted that half of Carson’s carries came in the first two quarters while Hyde saw a majority of his carries in the second half. Carson saw six targets. Hyde did not get a look in the passing game. Seattle may not have a back who gets monstrous volume but Carson with a majority of carries in close games and all of the backfield targets is worth looking at for the Captain spot.

NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations

Russell Wilson

Wilson’s rushing production has been on a downward trend for years. He averaged at least 5.9 carries per game for his first four NFL seasons. Since then he’s been under five in three of four seasons. He’s obviously an incredible passer. The change in rushing usage just pushes him to a priority Flex play and not a Captain-worthy selection.

Patriots Backfield

James White played fewer passing plays snaps (7) than Rex Burkhead (8) last week. His three targets still netted him a 15.8% target share but Burkhead’s presence is concerning. Burkhead at $1,000 is far better value and ownership proposition.

Sony Michel recorded 10 carries and fell into the end zone once. He could do so again this week and makes sense in a lineup that is built on the premise of New England holding a lead throughout the game.

Kickers and Defenses

The Patriots only carry an implied team total of 20.25 so Nick Folk can probably be left off your roster. Seattle’s leg, Jason Myers, is on the board because of his team’s 24.25 total.

The total of 44.5 keeps both defenses in play. Newton has a career sack rate of 6.8% and was sacked on 9.5% of his dropbacks in Week 1. Wilson also struggles with taking sacks. His career rate is 8.4%. Newton throws interceptions at a higher rate but Wilson has also fumbled ten or more times in half of his NFL seasons. Both quarterbacks take enough risks that either defense can be played. They can also be run into the opposing quarterback as a way to get unique.

Lower-Owned NFL Picks

Ancillary Receiving Pieces

Seattle’s second and third tight ends combined for fewer passing down snaps than Greg Olsen. Will Dissly was primarily used as a run-blocker while Jacob Hollister spent most of his Sunday on the bench. Olsen is worth a flyer in heavy Seattle stacks. Moore could be used in the same way.

Damiere Byrd led New England in passing down snaps (21) but didn’t get a target. If the Patriots are in a hole early, he’s presence on the field cut net him multiple looks. He’s only $1,400.

Ryan Izzo played all but one snap for New England’s offense last week. His one target represents Newton’s only pass that traveled at least 15 yards downfield. He’s another cheap option on a Showdown slate that has a few of them.

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Author

Kyle Dvorchak

If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.