The third Sunday Night Football game of the year features two legendary quarterbacks with the Green Bay Packers visiting the New Orleans Saints as 3-point dogs. The game total is on the rise and currently sits at 52.5. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football | Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints
Showdown Captain
Injured Top Receivers
Michael Thomas (ankle) and Davante Adams (hamstring) have been ruled out.
Alvin Kamara
Week 2 was the first time we saw Kamara play without Thomas. He saw nine targets and still recorded 13 carries in a losing effort to the raiders. Kamara unsurprisingly performs extremely well as a receiver in games with high totals.
He’s going to be the highest-owned Captain on Sunday night, but that popularity is warranted. Don’t go into Week 2 without serious exposure to him at Flex at a minimum.
Saints Receivers
Per Pro Football Focus, Tre’Quan Smith led all Saints receivers with seven targets and 35 receiving snaps in Week 2.
- Seven targets – 18.9% target share – second on the team
- 67 air yards – 34% air yards share – first
Emmanuel Sanders was out-targeted by Smith, Jared Cook, and even Deonte Harris.
Packers Receivers
Allen Lazard led Green Bay with 32 receiving snaps, but it was Marquez Valdes-Scantling who finished first in targets with eight and also topped the team in air yards at 132. He’s a solid Captain play if Adams misses time and will be fairly contrarian if Adams suits up.
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones is the better version of Alvin Kamara.
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) September 23, 2020
Kamara will face off against his superior self in Jones on Sunday night. Jones could be in for a massive workload at receiver with Adams hobbled at best. In four games without Adams last year, Jones caught 22 passes for 280 yards and scored three times. His average depth of target sat at a respectable mark of 3.2. He’s a solid pivot off of Kamara at Captain.
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NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees‘ 64.7% completion rate is his worst mark since 2012, and his adjusted yards per attempt of 7.2 is his lowest mark in a decade. It’s too early to say Brees is dust, but his start has been rocky. He also offers no value with his legs, so it’s difficult to find a scenario that he makes sense as a Captain. With the Saints favored, he’s still a building block at Flex but could be left out of lineups with multiple running backs.
Aaron Rodgers has been on a tear to start the year. He’s scored six times, is averaging over 300 yards per game and has yet to throw an interception. The biggest edge Rodgers has is his aDOT. He posted an 11.1 aDOT in Week 2, more than double Brees’ mark of 5.3. His aggression downfield makes him a superior play at Captain and in the Flex.
Tight Ends
Robert Tonyan has played on 50 receiving snaps to 43 snaps for all other Packers tight ends. He dropped a zero in Week 1 but rebounded with two catches for 25 yards and a score in Week 1. He likely needs a score to make the optimal lineup, so pairing him with Rodgers is preferred. He’s only $2,200 and is clearly the leading tight end on an offense led by Rodgers.
On the other side, Cook should be in play as well. His 124 air yards are top 10 among tight ends, and his share of air yards is better than all but one tight end. As far as tight ends go, Cook is one of the few downfield receivers in the league. With Thomas likely out, expect him to continue to stretch the field on a consistent basis for the Saints.
Defense
Brees has 69 dropbacks on the year, but opposing defenses have one sack and one interception on him. Even if he is washed, he’s still playing too conservatively to play an opposing defense.
The Saints are favored at home, and Rodgers should garner a lot of ownership based on his blistering start. They are are also the less expensive defense at $3,200 but have recorded three sacks in both games. They aren’t a lock by any means but should be in the player pool.
Kickers
Both kickers are in play, but the 52.5 total does mean that they have limited upside relative to skill-position players who have access to touchdowns. Mason Crosby is top five among kickers in points, but nine have come from PATs. His offense has had to go off in order for him to score fantasy points. If the touchdowns concentrate toward one or two Packers, he could sneak into the final spot in the optimal lineup.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Deonte Harris
Harris is only $1,600 despite seeing five targets and getting a carry in Week 2. He’ll continue to operate as the No. 3 receiver in New Orleans as long as Thomas is out. His price is ideal for getting in multiple elite options up top.
Jamaal Williams
Williams is second on the Packers in carries (15) and running back targets (four). He’s averaging 52.5 yards from scrimmage through two games. His $2,000 price is surprising for a No. 2 back on an offense that can put up points in droves.
Taysom Hill
If Brees gets benched for Hill at halftime, his price tag of $1,800 will be comical.
In reality, Hill is a gadget player with some touchdown upside. He tallied five touches and a pass in Week 1 but didn’t get as much action last week. Hill carried twice and played on 14 snaps, five fewer offensive snaps than he saw in the prior week. He did net two snaps out wide after getting zero in Week 1. That could be a trend going forward with Thomas out.
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