Greetings, Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Sunday Night Football slate between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints, with thoughts on Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and more NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
Don’t forget to check out the Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Live Before Lock Show with Greg Ehrenberg and Kyle Dvorchak at 7:20 p.m. ET. Every single-game slate we’ll have a live before lock show for you for the 2020 season.
NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football Packers at Saints (-3.0), O/U 52.5
There may be some serious opportunities opening up in the Green Bay passing game if Davante Adams indeed sits. He has not practiced this week and is currently listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. Michael Thomas is out for a second straight game with an ankle injury, and we saw on Monday Night Football what the workload distribution may look like.
Check out the Monday Night Football breakdown here (FREE).
Green Bay Packers: 24.75
Quarterback
Despite throwing for 604 yards and six touchdowns in the first two games this year, Aaron Rodgers does not crack the top 20 quarterbacks in most projection systems this week. While the Saints defense looked good against Tom Brady in week 1, they allowed Derek Carr to throw three touchdowns and 282 yards while leading the Raiders to their first victory in Las Vegas.
Though he is on the downward slope of his career at 36 years old, Rodgers is still arguably the best quarterback in this game. Even with his uneven performances with just seven of 18 gamesover 20 fantasy points since the start of last year, this projects to be a close and high-scoring affair. Also, while he is still mobile in the pocket, keep in mind he has only three rushing touchdowns in his last 42 starts.
Running Back
Aaron Jones is coming off a phenomenal Week 2 after showing out against the Lions for 68 yards and a touchdown on the ground and turning eight targets into four catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. Clearly he has the market share cornered in the Packers backfield … or does he?
| Player | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Aaron Jones | 42 / 54% | 35 / 48% |
| Jamal Williams | 31 / 40% | 31 / 42% |
| Tyler Ervin | 14 / 18% | 28 / 38% |
| A.J. Dillon | 5 / 6% | 7 / 10% |
Based on the number of Twitter victory laps, you would think that Jones walks on water while Jamal Williams is an afterthought. However, as we can see from the snap share, that is a leap of faith. While one would like to believe with Adams out Jones becomes a lock, but in the single-game contests, this is a major leverage decision against the masses.
Wide Receiver
In Week 1, Davante Adams had 17 targets and he had three before going down with an injury last week. The four tight ends have combined for eight targets, and Jones has a whopping 14 of the 20 running back looks. Allen Lazard (4,5) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6, 7) should each see 8-10 targets on Sunday Night Football. Equanimeous St. Brown is currently on the injured reserve, so that leaves Malik Taylor, Darrius Shepherd and Robert Foster, who was signed to the Packers practice squad at the beginning of the month after being waived by Buffalo. Keep in mind that Devin Funchess, who was acquired in the offseason, has elected to sit out this season.
Tight End
While it would make sense to see the Packers run more two-tight end sets, that is no guarantee of opportunity, let alone production.
| Player | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Robert Tonyan | 48 / 62% | 44 / 60% |
| Marcedes Lewis | 32 / 41% | 33 / 45% |
| Jace Sternberger | 12 / 15% | 16 / 22% |
| Josiah Deguara | 24 / 31% | 0 / 0% |
The eight targets have been distributed evenly between Robert Tonyan (0, 3), Jace Sternberger (1, 1), Josiah Deguara (2, 0) and Marcedes Lewis (0, 1). Tonyan has the lone touchdown and two of the four receptions for 25 of the 41 yards.
Defense/Special Teams
In his last 44 games, Drew Brees has thrown 17 interceptions and lost six fumbles while being sacked 51 times. There is not much to see here.
Sunday Night Football: NFL Picks + NFL Odds + NFL Betting Trends
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Zach Brunner breaks down the Sunday Night Football game for you to build your sports betting card around.
New Orleans: 27.75
Quarterback
We all were able to see it with our own eyes on Monday Night Football: Drew Brees is looking like a 41-year-old quarterback. The Green Bay passing defense is solid, and through the first two games they allowed Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford to combine for 39-of-58 (67.2%) with 503 passing yards, four touchdowns and two picks. Those figures are very similar to Brees’ production of 44-for-68 (64.7%), 472 yards, three touchdowns and one pick. So if you have been disappointed by his fantasy numbers thus far, be prepared to be once more.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara was only rostered at a 30-ish% rate in the Captain spot on DraftKings in the head-to-heads and three-mans that I played on Monday. Currently the Awesemo projections have him coming in at 25% with another 50% in the Flex. FanDuel has him at 17% for the MVP designation and 70% combined.
With Michael Thomas out, we should see Kamara flirt with double-digit targets and around a dozen carries. Latavius Murray will likely be in on around a third of the snaps, and he should see about half of the carries along with a target or two. Ty Montgomery has played 10 total snaps through the first two weeks.
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Wide Receiver
On Monday Tre’Quan Smith led the receiving corps with seven targets. Jared Cook and Deonte Harris each had five with Emmanuel Sanders getting only three. Kamara led the team with nine targets, and this would seem to be the expected pecking order.
Similar to the analysis I made going into Monday, there is not really going to be a “next man up” who directly benefits from the target vortex left behind by Thomas. Sanders did not seem much attention until late in the game, and while I expect that to change, the volume is not going to be massive, and 5-7 targets is the upside. Smith saw a big price bump on DraftKings to $8,200, while Sanders is at $5,600, which makes for an interesting decision point. On FanDuel they are $9,500 and $10,000, respectively.
Tight End
Jared Cook is a solid option who should have a floor of 5-6 targets, but the upside will be determined by his red zone opportunities rather than volume. Josh Hill and Adam Trautman have four combined targets on the season.
Defense/Special Teams
While Rodgers has been sacked once and has yet to suffer a turnover, the Saints defense is not one to be taken lightly. We know that the future Hall of Famer tends to hold onto the ball too long and usually is sacked a couple times each game. Over his last 176 games played, he has been sacked on average of 2.5 times per appearance.
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Sunday Night Football Showdown + Single Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller. Tonight should be a lot of fun with a lofty 53.5 over/under, injuries opening up opportunities and the Saints favored by only a field goal at home.
EMac’s Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Inactives:Â nothing surprising Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, DL Kenny Clark, DE Marcus Davenport
Sunday Night Football Top 10
- Alvin Kamara: This is no surprise, but it is nice to see him priced at the top of DraftKings and behind only Rodgers on FanDuel.
- Aaron Jones: As mentioned above, this is a tremendous leverage opportunity against the field, but he does deserve to be ranked here based on his potential with Adams out.
- Deonte Harris: We need the savings, and he should be on the field for half of the snaps. Also returns kicks and usually gets a rushing attempt.
- Aaron Rodgers: It will be up to him to elevate his receivers in the absence of Adams.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Basically a coinflip with Lazard. Valdes-Scantling is my personal preference, but if I need the savings, I have no qualms with going to Lazard.
- Jared Cook: He should be the secondary red zone option behind Kamara.
- Drew Brees: Does nothing on the ground (last 60 games: 99 yards and nine touchdowns) and is expensive.
- Tre’Quan Smith: Easy choice over Sanders on FanDuel at a $500 discount. Not so much on DraftKings where he is $2,600 more. Six days ago he was coming at a 20% and 30% discount to Sanders on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively.
- Allen Lazard: Easily could flip spots here with Valdes-Scantling.
- Jamaal Williams: At just $2,000 on DraftKings, this is one heck of a pivot away from Jones. The $7,000 on FanDuel is not as enticing, but the leverage against the field is still there.
Sunday Night Football Secondary Plays
- Wil Lutz/Mason Crosby: Favorable pricing helps us work in the top-shelf options.
- Malik Taylor: Best guess as to who is activated in place of Adams. Just $200 on DraftKings.
- Emmanuel Sanders: This is the 11th year for the 33-year-old, and he has just three 1,000-yard seasons to his name.
- Latavius Murray: May not have the mop-up duty game flow that unlocks his potential like we were hoping for on Monday.
- Green Bay and New Orleans D/STs: Both quarterbacks take care of the ball. We are hunting for a return touchdown here.
Sunday Night Football Lottery Tickets
- Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, Marcedes Lewis: Close your eyes and pick one if you dare.
- Tyler Ervin, Ty Montgomery, A.J. Dillon: Third string-running backs. Ervin returns kicks.
- Taysom Hill: Gadget touchdown or bust.
- Jameis Winston: It is 2020 after all, and anything is possible.
- Josh Hill, Marquez Callaway, Michael Burton: We would be better off going and getting an actual lottery ticket.
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