PGA DFS: Against the Grain for the Charles Schwab Millionaire Maker

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP Players Championship picks for PGA DFS. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.

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Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.

Top-10 Projected Golfers by Awesemo.com This Week

For the full list, click here.

PGA DFS Player Focus This Week

This week features 144 players (plus four previous champions that don’t count against the total field number) with the top 65 and ties making the cut.

$10,000 and Above

20 Golfers
Total ownership of 61%

Commentary

With only four golfers in this price category this week, DraftKings is in my eyes trying to make it easier for the general public to make lineups they are comfortable with. That should bring down ownership quite a bit on this bunch, as in any given tournament, their combined ownership could push upwards of 100%, they are likely not going to get 75 total this week. The first article I wrote last week talked about how Bryson DeChambeau seemed to be the most overpriced of the lot, and ownership seems to be reflecting that statement. He’s projected at 11%. Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm should end up around 15%, while I think Rory McIlroy will end up closer to 25% owned in the millionaire maker.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

DeChambeau is intriguing at this ownership, although his strength has been off the tee this year, and there just aren’t that many opportunities to gain strokes off the tee here.

$8,000-$9999

20 Golfers
Total ownership of 230%

Commentary

Webb Simpson is trending as the safest PGA DFS play of the week, coming in around 20% owned. Gamers look at fit and form and that seems to point to him as one of the best bets on the board. Tony Finau leads the next pack along with Xander Schaffuele, Gary Woodland, Dustin Johnson, Sungjae Im and Rickie Fowler, all garnering around 15% ownership. With Fowler playing on TV a couple of weeks ago, and the expected casual player push with the big prize pools on tap, I suspect that ownership is even higher than the printed 12% projection. Much of the ownership that was lacking from the group above is indeed getting spread out here. Fifteen or so golfers coming in over 10% owned — no surprise to see all of those guys listed before above or around the 15% number.

A couple of big question marks remain, however, with Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka being the biggest of the two. Koepka hasn’t shown us that world-class form in a little bit now but is closing in on the sweet spot in terms of salary to ownership. Spieth, on the other hand, hasn’t shown us that world-class form in a very long time, much longer than Koepka’s, but is also in a sweet spot with his salary. Even a top-10 from him at this point would pay it off.

Collin Morikawa gets a big-time price jump in such a strong field, and I think that should bring his ownership back down to earth. I have him close to 10% and quite a bit below the rest of the golfers here. After him, you should be able to choose from seven international golfers, five euros and two Australians, all of which will be under 10% owned.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

Shane Lowry is most certainly who I’m eyeing here. I know his salary seems high, but that’s also why ownership is low. He’s got a fantastic short game, as we saw at The Open last year. He can struggles off the tee at times. It’s also easy to get triple the field at 5% projected ownership.

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$7,000s

43 Golfers
Total ownership of 202%

Commentary

With such a deep field this week, there isn’t any one golfer that I’d consider “uber chalk.” That is just a silly industry term used to define when a golfer is projected to be very or too highly owned. I like these weeks the best because you don’t have to go over 20% on any one golfer to get double the field and, in most cases, triple the field. Harris English has had a good season, and his ownership has followed. He is the only projected golfer right now expected over 10% owned. I think that’ll change up a bit come tee off.

Byeong Hun An is one of those guys I suspect will also creep higher than the 10% expected ownership, he along with Daniel Berger, Billy Horschel and Viktor Hovland. Abraham Ancer is joined by Max Homa, Joel Dahmen, Adam Hadwin, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Na, Ian Poulter and Joaquin Niemann, all of whom should be owned over 5%. After them, it thinks out a bit with golfers like Brian Harman, Bubba Watson, Corey Conners, J.T. Poston and Matthew Wolff checking in close to 5%.

The drop off continues after that with plenty of golfers well under 5% including:

Phil Mickelson
Chez Reavie
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Cameron Smith
Jim Furyk
Harry Higgs
Graeme McDowell

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

Bezuidenhout, the rising star from South Africa with a great story and a really hard name to pronounce, is intriguing here. I’m always tempted to return to Harman, but he feels about $500 overpriced. Higgs is also a true grinder, as is Smith, and will be in a few of my Millionaire Maker lineups.

$6,000s

81 Golfers
Total ownership of 100%

pga dfs

PGA DFS Commentary

As of right now, I don’t have one golfer projected over 5%. Again, the field remains strong down here. There are plenty of quality golfers and a bunch are ranked inside the top 75 in the world. A couple of my favorite plays down here, since not many of them, are going to get over 5%, are Matt Wallace, Andrew Putnam, Dylan Frittelli and Brendon Todd.