The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows. Picks in green are for cash or GPP-style contests.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers for DraftKings, FanDuel
Top Value Plays
Tyler Glasnow – Rays @ Orioles – FanDuel $9,800 DraftKings $9,300
Glasnow only threw 72 pitches in his first start, but he was able to strikeout nine batters in just four innings while giving up a run on a single and two walks. Glasnow only pitched 70 innings in 2019, but impressed with a 2.94 xFIP and 11.27 K/9. He still isn’t in his prime and it wouldn’t be crazy for him to be even better come 2020. He’ll have every opportunity to strut his stuff tonight, as he faces off with what might be the worst lineup in baseball in the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles are at the very least one of the worst lineups in baseball and they’ll strikeout close to 28% of the time against righties when all is said and done. This should be a huge strikeout matchup for Glasnow and I fully expect close to 10 in five to six relatively clean innings. There isn’t a ton of value to be had at his price, but sometimes the best bet is to pay up at starting pitcher for safety and figure the rest out later.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: B, E
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, C
Zack Greinke – Astros @ Angels – FanDuel $9,000 DraftKings $10,800
Greinke didn’t look himself in his first start of the season, allowing three earned runs and lasting just 3.1 innings against the lowly Mariners. He couldn’t command his fastball and ended up walking a batter per inning. We shouldn’t expect that kind of performance very often, though, and this will be a solid spot to get some lower ownership. Greinke posted a ho-hum 3.74 xFIP while striking out just over eight batters per nine innings. He walked just 1.2 batters per nine innings, showing even more evidence that his first start was a blip in the radar.
He’ll look to turn things around tonight against the Angels, who present a generally weak lineup. While weak from top to bottom, we know the top of the order alone can do enough damage to knock out any pitcher. Still, they struck out 21% of the time last year and ranked 16th against righties with a .317 team wOBA. If Greinke is able to get past the likes of Trout and Ohtani, he should be on his way to a nice bounce-back performance here.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, E
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, E
Kenta Maeda – Twins vs. Indians – FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $9,000
Maeda did enough in his first start to hit value, striking out six White Sox through five innings while allowing two runs. At his price on FD and DK, that’s all you need in cash games. It’s fair to assume we’ll see him stretched out a bit in his second start and this matchup with the Indians a middle of the road one. They ranked 17th in baseball against righties in 2019 with a .316 team wOBA and 22.1% strikeout rate.
Maeda has a higher ceiling than given credit for, repping a 9.90 K/9 in 2019 along with a 3.95 xFIP. The Dodgers rarely allowed him over 95 pitches, but I suspect the Twins handle things a bit differently as wins aren’t as easy to come by as they are for LA. The price is fair on both sites and Maeda is a solid mid-priced play in all formats.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, A
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, D
Top GPP Targets
Tyler Chatwood – Cubs vs. Pirates – FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $8,200
Chatwood has seen his price increase after dominating in his first start, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing if it will keep his ownership down. He struck out eight Brewers in his first start and got the win through six innings. He’s dominant when his slider is working and could very well strikeout close to double-digit Pirates. Cubs fans are of the belief that Chatwood has revolutionized his game and could be an x-factor in this shortened season. If true, now is the time to jump on him as the price could still rise.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: D, E
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: D, E
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