The first Monday Night Football game of the 2020 season is a double-header. It starts with the New York Giants hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are -6 favorites after nearly a field goal of line movement in their favor. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
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NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Strategy, Optimal Lineup Construction | Giants vs. Steelers MNF
Captain
James Conner
Conner and Barkley are going to be two of the top options at Captain, but Barkley is likely to lead the field in ownership despite being more expensive than the Captain of winning lineups and playing on a team with a 19.5 implied team total. Conner isn’t the receiver that Barkley is, but he has some chops of his own. He averaged 4.2 receptions per game in his peak 2018 season. That’s 0.2 more than Barkley did last year. He’s the running back play at Captain.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Ben Roethlisberger missed most of last year, and the team turned to one of the worst passing tandems in the league with Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph. With Roethlisberger back in the fold, the 2018 season (when he was last healthy) is what we should look to for projecting this team. Much like Conner, Smith-Schuster was a dominant fantasy player in that season. He averaged a 6.9/89.1/0.4 line per game. At the age of 22, Smith-Schuster was on pace to be one of the best young players in the league. Injuries derailed that in 2019, but if he gets back on track this year, you’ll want to be over-exposed to him early in the season.
Daniel Jones
Giants players aren’t going to get a lot of love in this article. They’re nearly touchdown dogs, but Jones’ price is incredibly attractive. He’s just $13,500, which is affordable for a Captain. It’s shocking given he scored over 30 DraftKings points on four occasions last year. Jones has a strong arm giving him access to chunk passes and can get it done on the ground as well. He rushed for 279 years in 13 games last year. He’s an especially great play in lineups that are built on the assumption that this game is close.
Jones and Conner are good enough values that they’re a priority in the Flex and Captain. Smith-Schuster has enough competition for targets that he’s not a must-play.
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NFL DFS Picks: Flex Considerations
Secondary Pittsburgh Receivers
Both Diontae Johnson ($5,800) and James Washington ($4,600) are priced reasonably. However, Washington led the team in air yards last year (1,266) on the back of a team-high, 15.8 average depth of target. With Roethlisberger back, Washington’s ceiling could be sky high on a weekly basis.
Ben Roethlisberger hasn't had a receiver with an aDOT +15 and more than 50 targets since Mike Wallace 2010.
Wallace 2010 line – 60/1257/10
This is a James Washington tweet.— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) September 14, 2020
Veteran tight end Eric Ebron is surprisingly priced above all Pittsburgh receivers who aren’t Smith-Schuster despite us not knowing what his role will be. He’s an easy fade in favor of Johnson or Washington.
Giants Wideouts
The Giants have a mess in their receiver room. Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate will be battling for slot duties while Darius Slayton works on the outside. The trio did not play a single game with Jones under center last year, so we have no good data to predict their split. Tate enters Monday night with a hamstring injury that he’s likely to grit through. That could limit his snaps and makes Shepard a better play between the two. However, Slayton looked to be the most explosive receiver in New York last year. He topped 35 DraftKings points twice last year and led the team with 740 receiving yards.
Evan Engram is basically a wide receiver as well. Engram has been consistently injured since entering the league but appears to be healthy now. Jones was sneaky efficient when targeting backup tight end Kaden Smith. It’s possible that he’s good at hitting his safety valve and Engram shouldn’t share that role with Smith as long as he’s healthy.
Pittsburgh Defense
Pittsburgh’s defense may be on the road, but they’re big favorites against one of the league’s most mistake-prone passers. Jones’ lack of awareness in the pocket led him to a league-high 11 fumbles last year. He was also sacked on 7.6% of his dropbacks. The star-studded Pittsburgh defense could ravage Jones on national television.
Kickers
We’re going with the favorites for kicker as well. Two-kicker lineups are almost nonexistent among winning teams, so Chris Boswell is the move. Boswell caught a case of the yips in 2018 but showed off some ceiling in 2017. He finished top five in points despite a modest PAT total.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Chase Claypool
Claypool’s odds of being a contributor in Week 1 seem slim. He’s projected to be the No. 4 receiver in a game with a middle-of-the-road total. He’s also a rookie who got a limited offseason. However, camp reports said that he consistently made plays and his size/speed combo is unearthly. He stands at 6-foot-4 and weighs 238 pounds but runs a 4.42 40-yard dash. He could play the same role as Washington, so it’s best to limit one per lineup.
Anthony McFarland Jr.
The Steelers selected McFarland with the No. 124 pick of the draft this year. He had a quiet camp and suffered a concussion which cost him reps. McFarland could be a healthy scratch tonight but is worth noting at just $200. He needs one catch to pay off and lets you jam in every stud.
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