The 2020 rushing leader, Derrick Henry will look to repeat his historic rushing campaign in 2021. His 2020 yardage was the fifth most all time for a single season. However, despite his strengths as a rusher, Henry still lacks the pass-catching role of the NFL’s elite third-down backs. He is one of the more polarizing running backs in all of fantasy football. The question is, can Henry’s efficiency continue through 2021 and be a viable fantasy football draft asset? Let’s break down the 2021 fantasy football rankings and where Derrick Henry falls in terms of running backs, and overall.Â
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry’s Production Profile
Now entering his sixth season in the league, Henry is still just 27 years old. He has improved in each of his seasons in the NFL, first eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing in 2018. From there Henry reached 1,540 yards in 2019 before his historic 2020 outing. Last year Henry put up 2,027 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns on 378 carries.
However, Henry has always lacked the pass-catching ability of the NFL’s elite three-down backs. He has never eclipsed 19 receptions or 206 yards in a single season, and last year he caught just 19 of 31 targets for 114 yards. Towards the end of the season even Jeremy Mcnichols played over Derrick Henry in the pass game for Tennessee.
Check out Matt Gajewski’s breakdown of Derrick Henry in the 2021 Fantasy Football rankings and draft cheat sheet for Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Opportunity & Efficiency
Because of his deficiencies as a pass catcher, Henry’s opportunity is interesting to look at. He handled 81.6% of Tennessee’s running back carries but only 53.4% of receptions. Making matters worse, the Titans only threw to the running back position 58 times all season. Even though Henry has little upside as a pass catcher, he retains massive upside from his usage near the goal line. Henry handled 59 red zone rushing attempts last year, which equated to 82% of the Titan’s running back touches in the red zone.
From an efficiency perspective, Henry also put up a historic performance in 2020. He led the NFL in yards after contact (1,409) and forced missed tackles (75). While Henry also led the NFL in raw carries, his efficiency metrics adjust well on a per-attempt basis. His yards after contact per attempt trailed only Nick Chubb among rushers with at least 150 carries. On top of his ability to create yards on his own, Henry also displayed his big-play ability; his 21 runs of 15-plus yards again paced the NFL.
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Looking to the 2021 season, Henry’s offensive environment is relatively unchanged. The Titans ignored running back in free agency and during the NFL Draft, making Henry the favorite to lead the NFL in carries again. One potential threat comes from 2020’s third-round pick Darrynton Evans. Evans could potentially provide an explosive complement to Henry in the pass game after notching a 4.41 40-yard dash coming out of Appalachian State. Evans missed 10 games as a rookie, making him a relatively unknown commodity. However, with McNichols earning significant snaps towards the end of the season, the Titans already displayed a willingness to spell Henry at times.
Outside of the running back room, Tennessee lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. They promoted in-house replacement Todd Downing, suggesting a similar offensive philosophy to last year. On the offensive line, the Titans return four starters. While they lost Dennis Kelly, they added Kendall Lamm and Ty Sambrailo in free agency. The Titans also took developmental tackle Dillon Radunz out of North Dakota State in the second round of the NFL Draft. With the additional upgrade from Corey Davis to Julio Jones, this offense should rival the 29.6 points scored per game last year (fourth).
Bottom Line
As for fantasy football, Henry’s workload as a pure rusher is at the top of the league. While concerns as a pass catcher remain, his presence in an ascending offense somewhat mitigates those concerns. The Titans have a win total of nine games and the second-highest odds to win the AFC South. In best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy, Henry currently has an ADP of 3.4, behind only Christian Mccaffrey and Dalvin Cook. However, there is a reasonable debate between Alvin Kamara and Henry at the third overall pick.
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