Drafted with the 34th pick in the second round of the NFL Draft, Elijah Moore enters a rebuilding New York Jets offense. Moore checks almost every box coming out of Ole Miss and has draft capital tailor-made for future success. While Moore has elite long-term upside, New York’s crowded receiver room makes immediate opportunity a question mark. Here’s what to expect from Moore in Year 1 in terms of fantasy football draft rankings and where he should be coming off the fantasy football draft board in 2021 in Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore’s Production Profile
Moore had a 19.5 Breakout Age and a 45.5% College Dominator Rating, and he projects for immediate NFL success since young Breakout Ages and 40%-plus College Dominator Ratings correlate closely with NFL success. From a statistical perspective, Moore first broke out as a sophomore in 2019. That said, his freshman year he played alongside DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Damarkus Lodge and Dawson Knox, which prevented him from immediate opportunity. Despite the crowded depth chart, Ole Miss still burned Moore’s redshirt and utilized him as their primary kick and punt returner. When Metcalf went down with an injury late in the 2018 season, Moore also became an every-down player for Ole Miss in the slot. He caught 24 balls for 232 yards in their final four games.
Moving forward to 2019, Moore recorded his breakout season with the Rebels. He turned 115 targets into 67 catches for 850 yards and six touchdowns. He showed even more improvement in his final season with Ole Miss. As a junior Moore notched 86 catches, 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 101 targets. This also came with Moore playing in just eight games.
Check out Matt Gajewski’s breakdown of Elijah Moore in the 2021 Fantasy Football rankings and draft cheat sheet for Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Will Moore’s Efficiency Translate?
From an efficiency perspective, Moore dominated the college level. His 40.4% target share and 3.85 yards per route run ranked among the best in the country. Moore played 79.8% of his snaps in the slot but still displayed diverse usage. His 10.9 average depth of target (ADOT) showed an ability to win downfield. Moore also produced 505 yards after the catch, showing the ability to create on his own in space.
Looking to 2021, Moore slides into a somewhat crowded Jets’ wide receiver room. The Jets drafted Denzel Mims in the second round last year, signed Corey Davis and Keelan Cole Sr in free agency this offseason and restructured Jamison Crowder’s contract, ensuring his presence this year. Combined with a first-year quarterback, Moore’s prospects look questionable.
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While this looks concerning at first glance, Moore still possesses multiple paths to playing time and volume. Crowder took a 50% pay cut to stay with the team, showing how the team values him. Mims has been running with the second team to open camp after a disappointing rookie campaign. While Mims was a second-round pick, the current regime has no ties to him long term. Cole hasn’t eclipsed 642 yards in any of his last three seasons, and Davis hasn’t lived up to his draft capital as a fifth overall pick. It is possible Moore simply will beat out any or all of these players as the season commences.
Already excelling in minicamp, Moore should benefit from the structural changes in New York. On top of drafting Zach Wilson, the Jets have also invested first-round picks in the offensive line in back-to-back years. With Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur coming from San Francisco as head coach and offensive coordinator, the Jets should take a step forward this year. Last year they ranked 32nd in points per game and 31st in plays per game. The only direction is up.
Bottom Line
As for fantasy football, Moore continues to surge up draft boards, now up to an ADP of 114.3. Moore is getting drafted just ahead of Marvin Jones Jr, Henry Ruggs III and Gabriel Davis and just behind Corey Davis (112.9). Unlike most players in this range, Moore has a legitimate path to becoming the Jets’ WR1 this year. The Jets still only project for six wins, but Moore’s volume could still lead to strong fantasy production.
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