NFL Showdown Strategy Week 1: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

You made it! The 2020 NFL Season kicks off Thursday night with the reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs playing host to Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans. The game total sits at 54.5 and the Chiefs are favored by 9.5 points. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.

NFL DFS Showdown Strategy, Optimal Lineup Construction | Chiefs vs Texans TNF

Captain

The winning captains don’t typically come out of the group of most-expensive players on a given showdown slate. They are typically found in the next tier of pricing and allow you to fit multiple studs in the flex positions. The Chiefs studs are still in play but history says we want them in our flex spots. That leaves a handful of more affordable players vying for the captain job. All prices listed are the flex cost. Multiply by 1.5 for captain cost.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

At $8,800 Edwards-Helaire falls right in the sweet spot of captain pricing and plays running back, the most common position for captain among NFL Showdown winning lineups. It’s not yet known how the Chiefs are going to use him but we can safely assume he’ll have a tremendous role as a pass-catcher. He caught 55 balls in his final season at LSU and converted that into 453 yards. Patrick Mahomes is also an incredible passer when throwing to his backs.

Damien Williams has been Mahomes’ least effective back to target. He still averaged a 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt on those throws. Edwards-Helaire, a first-round pick in the 2020 draft, is going to be an upgrade out of the backfield to Williams, a UDFA who didn’t catch on with the Miami Dolphins. Expect to see this play more often in 2020 and on opening night.

The crowd is back into it. Patrick Mahomes finds Damien Williams for the 17-yard TD and the #Chiefs are on the board.

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/6leA3j8zul

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 12, 2020

Will Fuller

Is it even a showdown slate if Fuller isn’t in your captain slot? Obviously Fuller has unparalleled upside if everything hits (see his 50-point game last year if you need proof). But he should have even more upside in his first game without DeAndre Hopkins. The biggest effort Houston made to replace him was with Brandin Cooks, who is already missing practices heading into Thursday. Fuller costs $8,000 and is projected to be outside the top five in captain ownership.

It’s important to note that winning lineups used more players from the team opposite that of their flex player just 8.5% of the time last year. If you’re going with Fuller at captain, he needs to be paired with at least two Texans.

NFL DFS Flex Considerations

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes does fit some of the captain criteria for quarterback. When a passer ends up as the optimal captain play, they’re expensive and popular. They also play in games with a ton of points, which justifies spending for access to every touchdown. However, Mahomes’ N0. 1 captain ownership knocks him to a flex play. High-scoring games nearly always see a quarterback in the winning lineup making Mahomes non-negotiable. The Chiefs nine extra points based on their implied team total (31.75) makes Mahomes the move over Watson.

Tyreek Hill vs. Travis Kelce

Hill’s higher cost ($10,400) is pushing down his ownership to a slightly lower mark than Kelce but both are great plays if you can get them in with Mahomes. Be ready to find some cheap plays after getting two of the top three Chiefs.

Duke Johnson

Duke is set to operate as the third-down back to David Johnson‘s between the tackles role, assuming he takes on the Carlos Hyde job from 2019. Watson targeted Duke at least five times in seven different games. The Texans lost four of those games while only losing six contests on the year. They also went 4-4 in games that he got more than five carries. Negative game-scripts are Duke’s best friend. The Texans project to face exclusively negative scripts in this outing.

Middle- and Lower-Owned Plays

Darrell Williams

Williams is set to be the backup to a rookie who got a shortened offseason and there are rumors of the two splitting work. Williams projects as a top-five value on the slate and doesn’t appear to be a popular play. It’s also viable to play both him and Edwards-Helaire in a lineup.

Chiefs Defense

The Chiefs defense is the choice if you want to save some money as they are massive favorites but they also get a far easier quarterback matchup.

Watson Career:

9.4% sack rate
2.4% interception rate

Mahomes Career:

3.9% sack rate
1.6% interception rate

Rolling without a defense is more common in games with higher totals so don’t go all-in on the Chiefs defense. Facing Mahomes is a recipe for failure on the Houston front.

Kickers don’t have access to touchdowns barring a fluky trick play. They are high-floor, low-ceiling options in NFL Showdown. This game should feature loads of scoring, pushing them out of the optimal lineup assuming the game total is close to accurate. They’re only seriously in play if the under hits or one team struggles in the red zone.

Jordan Akins and Darren Fells

This duo combined for three-double score games in 2019. Fells had two while Akins managed the feat once and led all Texans tight ends with 55 targets. Banking on some cheap touchdown production from either and then attacking the chalk in Kansas City is a great way to get a different build.

Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins

This could be to a decision point that swings the entire slate. Both Hardman and Watkins are competing for the No. 2 role opposite Hill and Watkins finished 2019 with the edge. He stayed above an 80% snap share for all three of the Chiefs playoff games while Hardman topped out at 40%. The more popular play appears to be Watkins. However, their faith in him down the stretch makes me think he’ll continue in his No. 2 role to start 2020. Don’t be afraid to use both in a Chiefs 5-1 onslaught. With the 5-1 build being criminally underused by the public, a stack involving both has a chance to pay off big in the season’s opener.

Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb

With Cooks logging a limited practice on Wednesday, there’s a chance he misses Week 1. If that’s the case, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills enter the conversation. Stills disappointed in a number of spots with Fuller out last year. Cobb, on the other hand, managed to earn 83 targets while playing with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. He has the potential to be a check-down machine and backdoor into the NFL Showdown winning lineup in the final minutes as the Texans fight from behind.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo NFL DFS content.

Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.

Author

Kyle Dvorchak

If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.