Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (55.5) Seattle Seahawks (27) at Los Angeles Rams (28.5)
Seattle Passing Game
Russell Wilson was way off in week 9, racking up multiple interceptions for the second time in three games and had a quarterback expected points added below four for the third time in five games. And yet, Wilson continues to finish each week with elite production, even in his worst performances, throwing for over 350 yards in 50% of the Seahawks games over the last six weeks and ranking inside the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in every game this season. The loss against Buffalo was no different, as Wilson threw for 390 yards on 9.5 yards per attempt and two touchdowns and ran for a score as well.
Within the Seahawks aggressive, pass-oriented offense, Wilson is consistently given opportunities by offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to take shots deep, and the matchup against the Rams this week should be no different, but week 10 is shaping up to be a tough battle for the explosive Seahawks offense. The Rams rank No. 1 in yards allowed per pass attempt this season and third in points allowed per play. Their pass rush, led by all-world defender Aaron Donald, ranks fifth in team pass rush grade. Any way you slice it, the Rams are an excellent team against the pass. He’s not a full fade, but the matchup is tough enough that the Awesemo projections are bearish on Wilson compared to his salary-based expectation. He’s the third-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate.
For the second game in a row, the receiving game production was dominated by second-year receiver D.K. Metcalf, who earned a 23% target share and 30% air yard share, en route to seven receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown and good for nearly 27 fantasy points on DraftKings. Over the Seahawks last five games, Metcalf and fellow wideout Tyler Lockett are within three percentage points of each other in target share, but Metcalf has a clear lead in air yards share (36% to 27%) and in red zone target share (23% to 15%), which is a major reason for his 5.5 fantasy points per game lead over his teammate. The Rams, similar to their overall defensive metrics, have been fantastic against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers this season, ranking in the top five in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed versus both position groups. That gives a little more validity to third option David Moore, who’s racked up 14 receptions and three touchdowns over the team’s last five games, tied for second on the team.
The tight end trio of Greg Olsen, Jacob Hollister and Will Dissly are averaging 5.2 receptions per game during that same span. Unfortunately, with that volume spread amongst three players, their all extremely thin plays week-to-week but have a less-than-zero chance of getting the prized third wide receiver usage in the offense. The best bet of the group is Olsen, who’s averaged one end zone target per game since week 4 but ultimately, most fantasy gamers shouldn’t even bother looking outside of the Seahawks’ two superstar wideouts, the rest are just mass multi-entry fodder. The Awesemo projections are significantly higher on Lockett at his WR12 salary, compared to Metcalf, which still sees his third-highest wide receiver salary on the main slate as too steep, when there’s still a decent possibility that Lockett could take over (like his 20 target game in week 7) at any time.
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Seattle Rushing Game
Starting running back Chris Carson returned to practice on Wednesday, getting in his first work since going down with a lower leg injury in week 7. That should put yet another damper on the hype surrounding DeeJay Dallas, who failed to follow up his 23-opportunity, 58-yard performance in week 8 with any meaningful production, totaling just 39 yards on nine touches. That was the same amount of looks as teammate Travis Homer, who was much more involved against Bills than he had been in either of the Seahawks’ past two games. Part of the 50-50 distribution of running back touches absolutely had to do with game flow (the Bills were ahead early last Sunday), but it’s also likely that this is simply how the Seahawks prefer to utilize non-Carson running backs this season, the one grand exception being the rookie Dallas’ standout 37% opportunity share in week 8.
Especially if Carson gets the greenlight this week, there’s plenty to like about a running back on a strong offense with an implied total over 25, but the Rams continue to appear tougher to beat on the ground than through the air, ranking sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and second in that metric over the past three weeks. Interestingly enough, however, Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics indicate that the yards per carry may not be telling the full story, as Los Angeles ranks a surprising 25th in adjusted line yards allowed. Keep your eye on the injury reports, but assuming Carson suits up, he’ll be one of the best values on the main slate, even with a salary inside the top 10 running backs.
Los Angeles Rams Passing Game
Jared Goff and the Rams emerge from their week 8 bye still trying to wash off the stench of their week 8 loss to the Dolphins in Tagovailoa’s first NFL start. Goff threw an astounding 61 times, 23 attempts more than Goff’s previous season high, but still managed just 355 yards and a single touchdown. Goff’s yards per attempt was 5.8, his second-worst mark of the season, and his two interceptions marked his first multi-interception game of the season. Goff now ranks outside the top 15 quarterbacks in true completion percentage, total QBR, adjusted yards per attempt and quarterback expected points added. This week, however, Goff gets the sputtering Seahawks defense, who rank 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt, dead last in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. If there was ever a week to look to Goff in daily fantasy football lineups, it’s this week, as the opportunity for Goff to crest the top 10 in fantasy scoring, something he’s only done twice this season is as high as ever. Unfortunately for fantasy gamers, however, Goff’s salary means there’s no room for error, as he’s the eighth-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate. Awesemo’s projections are slightly below that mark, but not so much that mass tournament players shouldn’t look his way in their daily fantasy football lineups.
When your quarterback throws 61 times, as Goff did in the Rams’ last game, someone’s bound to reap the benefits in the target department, and Cooper Kupp was just that receiver, earning a career-high 20 targets. In the context of that incredible usage, the 110 yards receiving was a rather disappointing total, but 25 DraftKings points are rarely anything to scoff at for a skill player. Robert Woods also had a solid contribution, adding seven catches for 85 yards, his highest yardage total since week 1 and a score. But very quietly, the air yards leader for the Rams this season has actually been Josh Reynolds, who’s earned more than 20% of the Rams’ air yards in each of the teams’ last five games and is averaging only 3.4 fewer fantasy points per game than the big two of Kupp and Woods during that span. With the Seahawks ranking bottom three in the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary, secondary and tertiary wide receivers, The Awesemo projections believe Reynolds makes particularly strong tournament play with a salary of just $3,500, tied for 67th on the main slate and, surprisingly, are a bit more tepid on both Kupp and Woods. Woods, who has the 11th-highest salary among wideouts, has a significantly lower projection than that this weekend. Woods projects as one of the 12 most utilized wide receivers on the main slate.
Los Angeles Rams Rushing Game
After their week 9 bye, fantasy gamers are back to trying to decipher the three-headed monster that is the Rams backfield, and just like in the weeks leading up to their bye, it appears that will be as difficult as ever. Darrell Henderson, who had led the team in opportunities in four out of the last five games prior to week 9, exited early with a thigh injury, paving the way for a season-high 12 looks for Malcolm Brown and a career-high 10 opportunities for Cam Akers. Nonetheless, for the fourth week in a row and sixth time this year, Henderson was the backfield leader in total yardage. The issue is that the team-leading total was just 58 yards. Both Brown and Akers were finished within four yards of Henderson. Needless to say, if the backfield is distributed that way, all fantasy gamers can do is hope for receptions, efficiency and touchdowns, but it makes all three backs incredibly thin plays, particularly because most teams prefer to beat the Seahawks through the air (see Los Angeles Rams Passing Game, above) than via the ground. Seattle quietly ranks top five in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. With the Rams expected to use a pass-heavy approach, as they did (with, granted, little success) in their last game, all three Los Angeles running backs are considered fades, compared to their salary-based expectations, in the Awesemo.com projections.
Prediction: Seahawks 38, Rams 28
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Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
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Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
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