Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: San Francisco 49ers (21) at New Orleans Saints (30)
San Francisco Passing Game
The 49ers had a game to forget, in what’s quickly turning into a season to forget, in week 9 against the Green Bay Packers, losing 34-17, but that doesn’t tell the full story of how badly San Francisco was beaten. The 49ers win probability was just 4.2% at halftime and quickly jumped to well below 0.1% just after that. 14 of the 49ers 17 points happened after that point in the game. The garbage time ended up saving Nick Mullens’ day from a production standpoint, as he threw for 291 total yards on 8.3 yards per attempt and added a touchdown as well. But the game was never competitive, and in neutral game scripts, the offense wasn’t able to generate any meaningful offense, which doesn’t bode well as they prepare to face a New Orleans’ defense who just made Brady look silly in an all-out shellacking of the Buccaneers last Monday. New Orleans ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed per attempt and points allowed per play over their last three games, a clear sign they’re rounding into form as they enter the second half of their season.
With much of the receiver corps ailing and George Kittle (foot) lost for yet another extended absence, Mullens focused a majority of his passes on Richie James, who hadn’t run more than two routes in a game all season, but suddenly captured well over 40% of the 49ers’ true weighted opportunity share and turned that usage into nine catches for 184 yards and a touchdown. His 36.5 DraftKings points were the highest among wideouts in week 9, but Brandon Aiyuk was reactivated from the COVID-19 reserve list and will play on Sunday, which immediately puts an encore of that spectacular performance in serious doubt. As of Thursday afternoon, Deebo Samuel still has not been practicing, however, which means that we could see a lot of two wide receiver sets with Aiyuk and James, with Trent Taylor manning the slot. With New Orleans suddenly ranking among the better pass defenses in the league and ranking above league average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, the Awesemo projections see practically this entire passing attack as an offense worth fading this week. If fantasy gamers want to take a chance on anyone besides James, the projections don’t hate, but certainly don’t love Aiyuk. He’s not the worst play at his salary of $5,700, especially with a projected ownership under 1%.
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San Francisco Passing Game
With Tevin Coleman sidelined for the 49ers’ week 9 bout with the Packers, San Francisco turned to Jerick McKinnon as their lead back, and McKinnon ended up earning 16 total opportunities. In spite of the game script being downright disastrous for running backs (the 49ers were down by more than three possessions), McKinnon still saw 12 rushes and four targets, totaling 68 yards and adding a garbage time score to bolster his fantasy performance. It was the highest opportunity total for any 49ers back since Jeff Wilson’s 19 looks in week 7, which makes McKinnon looks particularly intriguing in week 10, especially if Coleman remains out this week due to his lower leg injuries (update: Kyle Shanahan confirmed that Coleman, as well as Raheem Mostert, are out for week 10). The Saints defense has been tremendous against running backs this season, ranking third in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and best in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed versus running backs. There is a possibility that McKinnon, along with rookie Jamycal Hasty, who had only six touches last week, once again sees the bulk of the carries and targets, making him an un-ignorable volume play, even if the projected game flow leans pass heavy, and the matchup against the Saints front seven is less than ideal. McKinnon currently sits at RB14 on the Awesemo projections this week, ahead of his salary-based expectations, but that projection will shift drastically if Coleman’s able to return this week. If that’s the case, this backfield becomes an easy stay-away option, as San Francisco’s likely three-headed monster will be next to impossible to predict.
New Orleans Passing Game
The Saints were operating on cylinders last Monday night, as quarterback Drew Brees led an efficient aerial attack to the tune of 6.9 yards per attempt and four touchdown passes. With the defense completely stymieing Brady, New Orleans went up by three possessions early and never looked back, cruising to their sixth victory of the season and overtaking first place in the NFC south. Brees, continues his efficient, turnover-free play (he hasn’t thrown an interception since week 5), ranking second in the NFL in true completion percentage, third in clean pocket completion percentage and third in total QBR. But the yardage is bound to be limited when he’s only throwing 1.1 passes per game of 20 yards or more, which ranks outside the top 25 quarterbacks. Nonetheless, Brees still ranks eighth in quarterback expected points added. Make no doubt about, he’s still playing at an elite level, despite ranking outside the top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. And this week, he’ll face a San Francisco defense that, shockingly, ranks in the bottom 12 in points allowed per play over the last three weeks and bottom 15 in yards allowed per attempt. They’re nowhere near the shutdown secondary that we remember from a season ago. PFF ranks the defense as just slightly above average this season.
Moreover, the Saints barely needed to use newly reactivated wide receiver Michael Thomas, who returned to a part-time role, playing on just 55% of the Saints’ snaps. Still, Thomas found a way to tie for the team lead in targets with six and led the team with 51 yards receiving. Fantasy gamers should absolutely expect Thomas’ snap percentage to rise as the weeks go on, but it also makes Thomas a fairly thin play this weekend due to his prohibitively high salary, as he’s the fifth-highest-salary wideout on the main slate. The Awesemo projections still place him inside the top 10, but just below his salary-based expectations. In fact, the projections are somewhat bearish on this entire passing attack (we’re not including Alvin Kamara, see below), showing Brees, Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders (who has the revenge game narrative but has seen more than five targets in just two games this year) and gadget weapon Taysom Hill as having slightly inflated salaries compared to their projections. Nonetheless, New Orleans makes a solid stacking option, particularly if they have a similar game script to last week, when this offense was able to score at will.
New Orleans Rushing Game
It’s not like anyone needs to tell fantasy gamers that Kamara’s a great play this weekend. Regardless of matchup, Kamara continues to run about with the league lead in quality opportunities per game (targets plus goal line rushes), while ranking No. 2 in the NFL in expected fantasy points per game. Though he only had 14 touches last week, a season low (though six were catches), but that can be almost entirely explained away by game flow, as the Saints simply didn’t need much from their star back during their all-out bludgeoning of Buccaneers in week 9. The Saints instead limited Kamara’s usage and allowed Latavius Murray to get his typical 12 touches (including two targets) and even worked in Dwayne Washington for five rushes of his own. Hill also took precious backfield touches away with a season-high six rushes. Nonetheless, it’s not crazy for fantasy gamers to completely disregard the distribution of touches from week 9, simply because the team got ahead by so much so quickly. The most likely backfield scenario in week 10 is that Kamara jumps right back into his typical 20-25 looks. Even more enticing, the 49ers haven’t been nearly as effective against the run in recent weeks, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per carry since week 7. Kamara’s a set-it-and-forget-it option in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend.
Prediction: Saints 31, 49ers 14.
Jump to Another Game
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
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