Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (47.5) Detroit Lions (PK) at Carolina Panthers (PK)
Detroit Passing Game
The Lions narrowly escaped defeat in week 10 with a last-second field goa. considering the Lions were missing their best offensive player (Kenny Golladay) and multiple auxiliary weapons (Danny Amendola, Marvin Jones) got banged up in the game, Matthew Stafford still managed a solidly efficient 276 yards and three scores, good enough for sixth best among all quarterbacks on the main slate. Though Stafford is battling a thumb injury that will likely make him questionable to play this week, the expectation (as of the time of this article’s writing) is that Stafford will be able to suit up, and if so, he should have an enticing matchup against a Panthers secondary that ranks 31st yards allowed per pass attempt over their last five games and has ranked in the bottom 10 in points allowed per play all season. Despite Stafford’s middling numbers this season (13th in adjusted yards per attempt, 17th in QBR, 20th in fantasy points per game), this matchup against Carolina has a relatively high probability of being the highest-scoring game on the slate, and Stafford could finally sneak back into the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring, especially if there’s a chance he gets his primary outside weapon back this week.
Golladay returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday, and it’s still possible he’ll need more time to recover from the hip injury that has kept him from playing in the Lions’ last two games. If he does return, this game’s shootout potential will skyrocket, as we can expect more targets overall for the Lions offense. Plus, the Panthers have been particularly susceptible to primary wideouts, ranking in the bottom six of all teams against the position in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. If Golladay needs more time to recover, the best play among Lions receivers might actually be Marvin Hall, who only had three targets but still managed 55 yards and a score and is arguably the healthiest receiver on the roster, especially compared to Jones (who led the team in targets in week 10), Amendola and T.J. Hockenson.
Jones was a limited participant in practice on Thursday, as was Hockenson, who’s still nursing a toe injury that has limited his production in recent weeks. Even though he’s managed at least 50 yards receiving in five out of nine contests this year, Hockenson has topped out at 65 receiving yards this season, meaning he, like the rest of his position, remains a touchdown-dependent play in daily fantasy football lineups. The issue for fantasy gamers is Hockenson’s inflated salary this weekend, seventh highest among tight ends on the slate. Though the projected ownership is quite low (under 3%), Hockenson seems like much too thin a play. The Panthers rank fourth in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends.
Detroit Rushing Game
(Update – since the paragraph was written, Swift popped up on the injury report and is questionable for Sunday’s game with head injury. The Swift ultra-breakout may be delayed.)
The Lions finally came to their senses and unleashed D’Andre Swift in week 10 against Washington, allowing Swift to gobble up 40% of the team’s opportunities and turned his 21 touches into a season-high 149 total yards and a touchdown, en route to the best game of his young career. The opportunity distribution was significantly different in week 10 than it had been previously, as Adrian Peterson saw a season-low five total opportunities. Even Kerryon Johnson, who saw a surprisingly high seven looks (including three targets) in week 9, reverted back to receiving just one total opportunity, the least he’s been involved all season. Even to casual fans, it was obvious that the Detroit offense was operating more efficiently with Swift on the field consistently, and, arguably more exciting, Swift did his best work in the receiving game, breaking four (of his five) evaded tackles in week 10 on receptions and ranked 12th among all backs with 10-plus attempts in elusive rating. The Panthers rank 10th worst in the NFL in adjusted line yards allowed and fifth worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, which makes this matchup, at least on paper, more appealing than the Washington game a week ago. Ownership will certainly need to be considered this week more than last, as Swift’s early ownership projections on Awesemo.com suggest he’ll go 20% ownership this week, third among running backs, but the projections indicate that’s for good reason – Swift, as the 11th-highest-salary running back on the main slate, is fundamentally mispriced this weekend, and savvy fantasy gamers need to take advantage before Swift’s salary skyrockets in the weeks to come.
Carolina Passing Game
Teddy Bridgewater was having a rough passing day against the Buccaneers even before he took a shot to the lower leg, prematurely ending his day. In the week 10 loss, Bridgewater threw for a season-low 5.7 yards per attempt, though a rushing touchdown ultimately helped Bridgewater secure a top-10 fantasy finish (which says more about the general wackiness of the week 10 slate more than the play of Bridgewater). Even worse, reports out of Carolina are that Bridgewater is still walking with a noticeable limp and appears unlikely to play this weekend, after initial optimism from the team once an MRI revealed no structural damage. If Bridgewater is able to recover enough to play, this looks like one the best matchups for any quarterback (and receiving game) in the NFL, as the Lions rank seventh worst in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt over the last five weeks and bottom 15 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. If Bridgewater’s forced to miss, P.J. Walker, formerly of the XFL, would get the start. Walker broke out as a true freshman at Temple, has decent athleticism and likely has some rushing upside against a Detroit team that struggles against opposing ground games, but as an NFL passer, Walker is a complete unknown. It will be extremely difficult to know if Walker is prepared, at this point in the season to run this offense. We may all find out this Sunday.
While a P.J. Walker start could theoretically alter the distribution of targets, the Panthers have been mightily consistent all season long, funneling a majority of the passing volume to Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Week 10 may have been a Moore game, but since week 8, Anderson has a strong lead on Moore in true weighted opportunity share, and it’s resulted in slight edge fantasy production as well. It should be noted, however, that the highest-scoring player over the Panthers’ last three outings has been Curtis Samuel, who has seen five, five and nine targets (on top of his rushing opportunities, see Carolina Rushing Game, below) during that span. With so much of the volume funneled towards the primary weapons, the Panthers have maximum stackability this weekend (assuming Bridgewater plays, that is), as the pairings of both Bridgewater and Moore (who has the 21st-highest salary among wideouts), as well as Bridgewater and Anderson (13th) aren’t necessarily discount options, but they won’t break the bank either. For obvious reasons, the expectations for all three of these receivers could, theoretically, get completely thrown out the window with Walker under center, but if Bridgewater suits up, the Awesemo projections believe the Panthers have the highest top-stack probability on the entire main slate. Prepare accordingly.
Carolina Rushing Game
Despite exiting the Panther’s week 10 loss briefly with a finger injury, Mike Davis still commanded a team-high 29% of team opportunities in week 10, his seventh game in eight weeks with over 25% of the team’s total offensive plays directed towards him. Still, even at his severely discounted salary on the main slate (as week 10 salaries were set before Christian McCaffrey’s inactive status was known), Davis’ total touches count (11) and 8.4 DraftKings points let down many fantasy gamers. With Davis’ sky-high utilization rate, his disappointing finish ultimately resulted in a general reduction in payout lines slate wide and created one of the more bizarre main slates in recent memory for those playing in cash games and double-ups, as lineups with scores that are typical D.O.A., but without Davis still finding success. The irony of it all is that if McCaffrey had been injured in week 10 (rather than week 9), and Davis had a salary of $6,700 (seventh among running backs), we’d likely be calling Davis a screaming discount. But with the bad taste of week 10 lingering in fantasy gamers mouths, it may deter some from choosing to go back to the well on Davis due to recency bias.
Don’t be that person. Davis is, once again, a fantastic salary-adjusted value on this slate against a Lions defense that’s allowing 9 more fantasy points per game to running backs than their season-long average and ranks 27th in yards allowed per carry over the last three weeks. It’s also worth noting that the Panthers (who, granted, were losing by multiple scores at that point in the game) simply abandoned the running back position when Davis went down, as only two running back opportunities went to non-Mike Davis backs. Samuel, who averages just under three carries a game, will continue to see backfield looks and would stand to benefit most from a Davis injury, but daily fantasy football players can’t worry too much about the downside, as the upside for Davis is so intriguing in this spot. With a much-improved matchup and only a modest salary boost,
Prediction: Lions 27, Panthers 20
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